Josef Tsintsadze: “Ilham Aliyev appeared to be a strong, charismatic politician”

Interview by Georgy Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza

According to preliminary results of the presidential elections in Azerbaijan, the winner is the current head of the state Ilham Aliyev who gained 84.73% of the vote. The whole region followed the elections attentively. The political scientist, president of Diplomatic Academy of Georgia, Josef Tsintsadze, told Vestnik Kavkaza about the results of the presidential elections in Azerbaijan.

-          Mr. Tsintsadze, what does re-election of Ilham Aliyev mean for the region?

-          The victory of Ilham Aliyev is very important because stability in Azerbaijan is significant to the whole South Caucasus. And the guarantor of the stability is the current president. Aliyev is associated with stability in Azerbaijan, i.e. in the whole region.

-          Why couldn’t the Azeri opposition and its leaders be a powerful alternative?

-          There are many reasons for the weakness the Azerbaijani opposition. We can speak of organizational problems, ideological differences, absence of a charismatic leader. On the other hand, Ilham Aliyev is associated with his father Heydar Aliyev and establishing of the Azerbaijani statehood. Of course, the war took place and any student can answer the question what the reason for it was and how it could be avoided.

In general weakness of the Azeri opposition is a result of strong and successful governance. Azerbaijan is developing and nobody can deny it. If we return to Heydar Aliyev, he was a politician with a capital P. His name is associated with the end of internal conflicts in the country. We remember what was going on in Azerbaijan under management of Heydar Aliyev’s predecessors. Heydar Aliyev formed an administrative vertical structure which was necessary to establish statehood.

Of course the socio-economic aspect played a great role, including oil revenues. Despite all difficulties, a common citizen of Azerbaijan feels the revenues. Nobody feels abandon. And it is an important factor of power and the leader’s legitimacy.

-          What are the main directions of the Azerbaijani foreign policy? How did President Aliyev manage to balance relations with the West and Russia? And why didn’t the Georgian authorities achieve this?

-          Heydar Aliyev and his son had such a powerful argument as oil. What trumps did Shevardnadze and Saakashvili have? None. Oil dollars played their role, but it should be noted they came to wise and skilful hands. Money should be spent wisely. I can see it in Azerbaijan: when you visit Baku, the scales of construction are amazing. The whole city is a construction area. Ilham Aliyev appeared to be a strong, charismatic politician as well. Finally, it is about mentality. Azerbaijan has no serious internal factors which are able to destabilize the society. The Azerbaijanis are traditionally consolidated. Thus, the country has a big chance to maintain balanced relations either with Russia or with the West. Azerbaijan is attractive for Moscow, as well as for Brussels and Washington.

Azeri diplomacy and foreign policy are much more effective than in Georgia. Probably we have no such resources or diplomatic skills and flexibility, and together with the economic factor they are able to provide successful foreign policy due to this.

That’s why the opposition is weak. For an opposition to be successful, an alternative national project is needed. And there isn't and won’t be such a project, if the governmental project is implemented successfully and the majority of citizens feel benefits from it.

The opposition has nothing to offer or set against both internal and foreign policies, except for common statements and empty speeches about democracy. Democracy means the rule of people, and people support the ruling party and its leader.

-          What is Azerbaijan’s status in the South Caucasus?

-          Azerbaijan is the most powerful and strongest state in the region. There is no doubt. It is always said that Azerbaijan yields to Armenia and Georgia in democratic standards. But for the democratic West Azerbaijan is the leader of the region, whether they want it or not.

-          What are prospects for Azeri-Georgian relations?

-          Prospects are great. We are fighting against the common problem – separatism. We have similar goals: reconstruction of our territorial integrity. However, our authorities use different methods. Georgia considers Azerbaijan a strategic ally, and it is reasonable.