Vladimir Sazhin: “Nobody stands against the development of the Iranian nuclear industry”

Interview by Vestnik Kavkaza

Last year Tehran and international mediators agreed on measures limiting the Iranian nuclear program. Experts began to speak about a breakthrough, but last weekend the Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Khamenei stated that the talks with major powers on the Iranian nuclear program demonstrated “hostility of the USA toward the Islamic Republic.” A senior political scientist of the Oriental Studies Institute of the RAS, Vladimir Sazhin, told Vestnik Kavkaza what was a reason for the statement.

-          Can the last statement by Ayatollah Khamenei who called the USA “a satanic state” influence the next round of negotiations between the delegation of Iran and 5+1 international mediators?

-          Nothing can happen in Iran without the Supreme Leader. Even birds don’t fly there without a decision of the Supreme Leader. The coming of the liberal president Hassan Rouhani to office in Iran was also a decision by Ayatollah Khamenei and his circle. The policy which was declared by the new president – improvement of relations with Western Europe and the USA – was also approved by Khamenei. Positive steps can be seen in settlement of the nuclear problem. The Geneva conference which predetermined further development of the nuclear program of Iran at least for a half of a year gave grounding in serious discussions, a serious dialogue, in establishing of a legal base between 5+1 and Iran, between the IAEA and Iran. It is a positive moment, and of course it is controlled by Ayatollah Khamenei.

However, the Islamic Republic of Iran is an ideology-driven state. Nothing is possible there without ideology. Clearly, the USA was “a big shaitan” for Iran during 36 years. Considering the situation which appeared due to sanctions, Iran had to agree with accords which were signed in Geneva. Of course it is real diplomacy, but at the same time ideology remains ideology, and the Supreme leader Khamenei could not but make several anti-American and anti-Western statements to balance the real policy and ideological propaganda.

Tehran will have to agree with 5+1 and the IAEA on its nuclear problem. If the Geneva accords are not fulfilled, Iran will face new sanctions, and it may lead to the regime’s collapse. Khamenei doesn’t want it. That is why he balances his real policy by ideological and propaganda statements.

-          At the moment Russia considers an opportunity to build new nuclear power plant units in Busher. Is a construction of the second nuclear power plant there scheduled development or an emergency measure in case of failure of the Geneva accords and stiffening of sanctions?

-          Nobody, even Israel and the USA, says that Iran shouldn’t develop its nuclear industry. I have been dealing with the Iranian nuclear problem for years; but I don’t think that difficulties with Iran are connected with nuclear industry. Iran has three directions of nuclear power activity: peaceful nuclear industry; enrichment of uranium and creation of complete complex fuel; and peaceful scientific research. Nobody stands against development of Iranian nuclear industry.

Iran’s plans to build 20 power units are unreal. Even the territory of Iran doesn’t allow this – there are mountains and a lack of water. Experts say that it is realistic to build 7-8 nuclear power units in Iran. A nuclear power plant can include several units; and Busher can receive one or two additional units. A new unit can be built there.

Who can construct the unit? The Iranians are not able to do it at the moment. So, they have to work with foreign colleagues. There are few countries in the world which can build nuclear power plants quickly and fundamentally. These are Russia, France, Canada, and several other countries. But for political reasons, it is beneficial for Iran to cooperate with Russia.