Interview by David Stepanyan, Yerevan. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
Lieutenant-General Vagarshak Arutyunyan, Armenian ex-Defense Minister, has described the role of military and technical cooperation with Armenia and Azerbaijan in Russia’s struggle for the South Caucasus, reasons for strengthening the military presence in Armenia and the abilities of other players to influence the situation in the region.
- Speaking about the moderator of a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, in terms of the international level, people mean Russia. What role does the military and technical cooperation of Moscow with Yerevan and Baku play?
- The role is great, however, there are some objective conditions to build up the mutually-beneficial cooperation. In particular, the Joint Air Defense System, forces and resources of the Armenian and Russian Armed Forces brought together under a common command, will soon be replaced by the Common Air Defense System, involving the countries of the Customs Union. Broader coverage is motivated by expansion of the Customs Union and new goals in the security enforcement of the economic space. Unfortunately, many in Armenia speculate about the topic, insisting that it would bring loss of sovereignty to the republic.
Strengthening Russia's military presence in Armenia is based on the protocol to the agreement on the Russian military base, extended in 2010. If the 102nd Russian base had been securing the perimeter of Armenia's borders with Iran and Turkey, after the new version of the document passed in 2010, its obligations expanded to all the borders. This is why there are more Russian troops in Armenia.
In the continuing struggle for the Trans-Caucasus, where Azerbaijan holds an important geopolitical position, Moscow is trying to prevent the strengthening of NATO in Azerbaijan through Turkey. This is done via involvement of Azerbaijan in fruitful military and technical cooperation with Russia and attempts to invite Azerbaijan to join Eurasian projects. And finally, the balance of forces in the zone of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is maintained.
- In other words, assistance in maintaining the ceasefire between the sides?
- Certainly. Russia protects its vital interests by staying in the Trans-Caucasus, because conflicts on its borders are a threat to security. The frozen Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is one such threat. Moscow is not interested in its renewal. Israel is forming missile defenses in Azerbaijan, which may cause concerns in Moscow. Thus, if Russia refuses to sell weapons to Azerbaijan, they will be sold by others with all the repercussions that follow. As a result, chances for new military operations dropped dramatically.
This refers to the rising role of Russia at a regional and global level, the fading of threats of war with Iran. Armenia joining the Customs Union and then the Eurasian Union will reduce the chances of a new war. Finally, Armenia is protected by the zone of CSTO agreements and direct agreements with Russia.
- Do Europe and the US play any role in enforcement of security in the South Caucasus?
- I suppose not. In the case of Armenia, it all depends on the policy its authorities have. In any case, Armenia is not going for European integration. In Brussels, Armenia has not been offered any of that and, judging by recent events, nothing will be. The Customs Union and DCFTA are economic projects, but their goals are political. What does association agreement with the EU mean? A declaration with no EU obligations Europe uses to prevent integration of the post-Soviet space. But the DCFTA is a real threat to the economy and the market in Russia, forcing Moscow to take measures in response, sometimes in the form of pressure there was, that has been and will always remain in the world. There is no clear purely political or economic formation in the world. They are all interconnected. And not a single economic space can exist without security. This is why, personally, I cannot understand the point of talk urging the expansion of Russia's military presence in Armenia, preparing to join the Eurasian Union, because everything here is more than obvious.
