The Special representative of the Georgian Prime Minister tasked with settling the relationship between Russia's Zurab Abashidze and Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin almost simultaneously confirmed the intention to discuss in early March the possibility of a meeting between the leaders of Russia and Georgia. However, Erosi Kitsmarishvili, Georgia's former ambassador to the Russian Federation, who in the recent past was one of the most influential Georgian politicians, said in his interview with Vestnik Kavkaza that the ruling coalition has missed the moment for a breakthrough in relations with Russia.
- How justified is the optimism about the future Summit?
- I expect no breakthroughs in Russian-Georgian relations. Despite the softening of the rhetoric on both sides, the irritants remain the same - the desire of Georgia to join NATO, as well as the problems of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The Georgian society is still subject to anti-Russian propaganda by Saakashvili's party "United National Movement", which did not disappear. So for the present government it is a state of zugzwang. And no good decisions or good moves are to be expected.
- Why do you think that the opportunities for dialogue and strategic compromise have been exhausted, when the summit has only just been suggested?
- Our government does not have room for maneuver. On one hand, Garibashvili's government speaks about the need to continue the course to join NATO, and on the other hand, it seeks to normalize the relations with Russia.But Moscow will always be rigid about the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The ruling coalition has exhausted domestic political resource for breakthrough solutions and compromise with Russia. There was a one-year, maximum 18-month "corridor" after "Georgian Dream" won the parliamentary elections in 2012. Now the "National Movement" has gained the ability to control the foreign policy moves of the government.
The rating of the ruling coalition gradually decreases. It has difficulties solving the social and economic problems. In such circumstances, the authorities will be wary of giving their opponents such a strong argument as a "defeatist position" towards Moscow as this argument may already be taken seriously in the society, weakening the government. Another thing is that a year or so ago, political legitimacy was much higher. Then the government could have taken the risk to make contentious and controversial foreign policy decisions.Not anymore - there are too many accumulated pending problems and broken promises.
If today the government abandon its aspirations to join NATO or sign an association agreement with the EU for the sake of normalization of relations with Moscow, it will cause a storm and such pressure from the opposition (i.e. Saakashvili's supporters), that the "Georgian Dream" would risk to lose everything they have. So, the government has exhausted the possibilities for immediate compromise. The only tactic that remains is gradual steps and long-term perspective - quiet, slow moving toward the West, simultaneously conducting a dialogue with Moscow and seeking common interests. That is what is happening now. Therefore, even if the meeting of our president or prime minister with Vladimir Putin does take place, no breakthroughs should be expected.
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