Yevgeny Minchenko: “Three oligarchic camps are dividing Ukraine”

Interview by Vestnik Kavkaza

The Central Election Commission of Ukraine completed the registration of presidential candidates. The elections will take place on May 25th. The list of the candidates:

Serhiy Tihipko (Party of Regions, self-nominated)
Mikhail Dobkin (Party of Regions)
Vadim Rabinovich (independent)
Renat Kuzmin (independent)
Yuriy Boyko (Party of Regions, self-nominated)
Valeriy Konovalyuk (independent)[
Volodymyr Saranov (independent)
Yulia Tymoshenko (Batkivshchyna)
Oleh Lyashko (Radical Party)
Oleg Tsarov (Party of Regions, self-nominated)
Mykola Malomuzh (independent)
Petro Symonenko (Communist Party of Ukraine)
Andriy Hrynenko (independent)
Oleh Tyahnybok (Svoboda)
Anatoliy Hrytsenko (Civil Position)
Natalia Korolevska (independent)
Oleksandr Klymenko (Ukrainian People's Party)
Vasyl Tsushko (independent)
Dmytro Yarosh (Right Sector, self-nominated)
Olga Bogomolets (independent)
Vasyl Kuybida (People's Movement of Ukraine)
Zoran Shkiriak (independent)

Yevgeny Minchenko, Director of the International Institute of Political Expertise, commented to Vestnik Kavkaza on the political situation in Ukraine ahead of the elections.

-          What do you think about the political situation in Ukraine?

-          There are several factors which will influence the situation in Ukraine. First of all, these are illegal armed groups, thousands of armed people on the streets. The question is whether fair transparent elections can be held in the context.

The second factor is the activity of security agencies which encourage the illegal armed groups (with rare exceptions, for example, a personal conflict between the head of the Right Sector and the Interior Minister) and at the same time they provide a strict policy of suppression of the opposition in the Southeast of the country. The question is whether the police measures against Ukrainian citizens who have a different view will go on.

The third factor is the disastrous economic situation in the country. The Ukrainian government promised the IMF to reduce salaries, social payments, to increase social service and gas prices, and so on. Will they do it ahead of the elections or try to gain time and do it in the post-election period? It is six weeks till the elections, and it will be difficult to gain time.

The fourth factor is the administrative resource. Today shifts are made all over Ukraine. They shifted governors, now they are changing mayors, heads of administration regions, appointing people who are loyal to Yulia Tymoshenko. How can the administrative resource influence the situation? There is total censorship in Ukrainian TV-channels, in Ukrainian media space, when a position of one political force dominates. I think it raises questions about holding fair transparent presidential elections on May 25th, from the point of view of organization and calculating votes.

-          What are the chances of candidates?

-          Today there is an obvious pair of leaders in the “orange” nationalist camp. I mean Poroshenko who is a leader of all ratings, especially after his union with Klichko, and Yulia Tymoshenko who has lower ratings, but a much stronger force and administrative resource. Moreover, there is Yarosh who seems to be on the down grade, but let’s see what will be next. Probably this is a tactical withdrawal, as according to him, he has 10,000 armed militants. And this is a serious force which can show itself during the calculation of votes at ballot stations.

-          As for the south-east, the situation is not clear. The forcible takeover of the Party of Regions by Rinat Ahmetov’s group and nomination of Mikhail Dobkin from the Party of Regions resemble an attempt to create a favorable sparring partner for the current leadership of Ukraine. At the same time, there are such interesting candidates as two formed vice-premiers of the Ukrainian government - Yuriy Boyko and Serhiy Tihipko, as well as a strict people’s deputy Oleg Tsarov who constantly stands against people who organized the Maidan, and now he could unite a radical part of the population.

As the authorities decided to expel candidates from the south-east to disintegrate it, a lot will depend on election campaigns of Tihipko and Boyko. I hope for Dobkin in a less extent, as he is a favorable sparring partner for the current authorities. The same thing is about Tsarov, whether he will have enough money and organizational resources.

-          Even if the south-east had a strong candidate, how would it win, considering the lack of Crimean votes?

-          I think if the elections take place, a pro-government candidate will win, Poroshenko or Tymoshenko. However, the elections are not an end. I think whoever will become Ukraine’s president, if the elections take place and be recognized by foreign actors, the president will face such huge problems that he or she risks to lose the rating faster than it happened to Victor Yushchenko.

-          What are relations between Poroshenko and Tymoshenko?

-          Today there is a déjà vu situation in Ukraine, as in 2005 the main political conflict in Ukraine was a conflict between Tymoshenko, the then-premier, and Poroshenko, the then-secretary of the National Security and Defense Council. It was not only a political conflict, but also an economic conflict, as they wanted to have the same assets. Poroshenko played with one oligarchs, Tymoshenko – with others. Today it is repeated.

If we forget about political orientation, there are three oligarchic camps today. One camp is the Dnepropetrovsk clan headed by Tymoshenko where the main economic headliner is Igor Kolomoysky, the head of the Rivat Group, the governor of the Dnepropetrovsk Region; and there are smaller oligarchs, mainly importers.

There is a camp of export-oriented economy. The major oligarch is Rinat Ahmetov who bought the Party of Regions.

And there is a business group of Poroshenko who is in the list of Ukrainian Forbes. These are three oligarchic camps which are dividing Ukraine between each other. I think it is naïve to believe that some principles of freedom or justice are important for them.

-          What will be Russia’s reaction to the elections?

-          I think the possibility that Russia won’t recognize the elections as legitimate is 50%.