The independent Georgian political scientist, Iosif Tsintsinadze, comments on the recent row after the Abkhazian government refused to examine the Russian Foreign Ministry's idea to give back houses to Russian citizens who left Abkhazia for various reasons.
- How would you comment on the unexpected misunderstanding (if we do not call it a row) between Moscow and Sukhumi, surrounding the demand by Russian citizens to have their houses on the territory of Abkhazia returned to them?
- First of all, this is demanded by Abkhazia's trying to maintain the demographic balance of the republic (at least at the current level).
Demographic balance is historically an Achilles' heel of the Abkhazians. The Abkhazians are really concerned that if they start returning houses to the Russians who left in the 1990s (at the time of the war and blockade) it will end up with all of them coming back to Abkhazia and thereby the pre-war demographic balance between ethnic Abkhazians and Russian speakers will be restored. And Sukhumi would not be able to control the processes and the situation
would be beyond its control. Of course nobody wants to discuss the reason for the conflict openly, which is an attempt by the Abkhazian elite to keep the current demographic balance in the republic, where after a long time the Abkhazians are in the majority after the non-Abkhazian population has left.
It is strange when the Abkhazian prime-minister (Sergei Shamba - VK) says that he got a letter from the Russian Foreign Ministry without a stamp and a date and so on, so declares "we are not going to examine such a document". In reality, the Abkhazians fear that the Russians who
left Abkhazia will come back. So they have set a trap for themselves: it is impossible to keep the demographic balance and not fulfil Moscow's orders. This is what has caused the emotional statements and activities of the Abkhazian authorities.
But such a reaction is not serious and has no future prospect: of course, sooner or later (probably sooner), Moscow will succeed and Russians will return to Abkhazia and the demographic balance will change. There will be many more Russians in Abkhazia than other
nations in total. It does not take ages: in a few years Abkhazia will be a fully Russian region. I would say that they need three or four years and the process will accelerate.
- So you think that the problem is not about property but demography?
- Obviously! Many houses have been destroyed there. They are uninhabitable. But
the Russians will buy them, build new houses and so on. You will not make a pile from such property. It is nothing to speak of. In fact it is about something else. That is why the Russian authorities are trying to convince Abkhazia to allow Russian citizens (even those who never
lived in Abkhazia) to buy property there freely. The Abkhazian authorities do not agree. Yet.
Interviewed by Georgy Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi. Exclusively for VK.
