Interview by Orkhan Sattarov, the head of the European Bureau of Vestnik Kavkaza
Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia signed association agreements with the European Union. For Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, which founded the Eurasian Union, it means the loss of three of its potential members. In the context of these events, many people are discussing the invitation to traditionally non-aligned Azerbaijan to join the Eurasian Union – a country which rejects association with the EU and is the absolute economic leader of the South Caucasus. Does Azerbaijan have Eurasian prospects? What are they? Heiko Langner, a Berlin political scientist, one of the few German experts who understand the specificities of South Caucasian politics, answers Vestnik Kavkaza’s questions.
See part 1: Heiko Langner: “Azerbaijan is a natural addressee for invitation to the Eurasian Union.”
- Can Russia settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the situation?
- Of course Russia has real power to solve the conflict under certain will. It's no secret that Russia is the most powerful co-chair of the OSCE MG and takes a position with power of veto. Of course Moscow won’t abandon the Armenians in favor of Azerbaijan, as it doesn’t meet Russian interests. Russia doesn’t want to make Azerbaijan its only strategic partner, it also doesn’t want to lose Armenia in this position. Only in this case can the concept of the Eurasian Union be implemented in the region. In the context of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict it means that Azerbaijan will gain something and Armenia will lose something. The Azerbaijani leadership knows this quite well, it means that it will try to boost the price of returning Azerbaijani territories. At the same time, it will form the minimum goals, without which serious talks with Russia will be impossible. Baku understands clearly why and how Georgia lost Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and Ukraine lost Crimea. In this context it won’t be a surprise if Moldova soon loses Transdniestira. Even though Moscow has no power to prevent the turn of certain former Soviet republics toward the EU and NATO, it always demands a big price for the turn.
However, the situation is different with Azerbaijan. When Baku joined the non-aligned movement in 2011, it actually rejected membership of NATO and met Russian interests halfway. Azerbaijan believes that it’s time that Moscow took a step in the Karabakh conflict.
- What is your view on the settlement of the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the context of Eurasian integration?
- Of course the question will be a headache for the Kremlin, as a settlement of the conflict will be very difficult, even though it is possible. A settlement is a process which demands the agreement of both sides. I have certain views on it, there are some fundamental elements.
First of all, the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh has a right to live in the region freely and safely. Even though it doesn’t require independence, but it means self-administration on internal issues and clear security guarantees.
Secondly, Azerbaijani forced refugees from the seven regions which are occupied by the Armenian troops outside Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as the Azerbaijani population of Nagorno-Karabakh, have a right to return to their home safely. The seven regions outside Nagorno-Karabakh cannot be a subject of talks on the political status of Nagorno-Karabakh, as they didn’t belong to the autonomous region before the war. The Armenian side has many times stated that it doesn’t claim the regions. So a return of these territories to Azerbaijan should be possible, but a safe corridor between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia should remain.
The problem of the political status of Nagorno-Karabakh should be settled only after a bridging stage, by democratic means and with the participation of both communities. Probably it will lead to some confederation autonomy with a high level of de facto independence of Nagorno-Karabakh. There will be no return to a Soviet autonomous status. An alternative could be an exchange of territories and establishing of new state borders. However, the number of ways of settlement of the conflict is limited, and all of them demand a compromise. Thus, Armenia should make progress, otherwise there will be no peace between the two countries.
- What are the economic and political advantages of Azerbaijani membership of the Eurasian Union?
- If membership of the Eurasian Union leads to the restoration of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, it will be a great political benefit. In this case Ilham Aliyev will manage to do a thing which couldn’t be achieved even by Heydar Aliyev. A successful settlement of the most important problem of Azerbaijan will be connected with a high level of support by the population of the further presidency of Ilham Aliyev.
As for economic benefits, they should be considered in detail. It is no accident that Azerbaijan rejected signing of the association agreement with the EU. Azerbaijan, just like Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova, is an old member of the European Neighborhood Program. The reason for Baku’s rejection is that the Azerbaijani government came to the conclusion that the economic advantages of the step are too small. I agree with this realistic view. The association agreement is a treaty between two unequal partners. The Azerbaijani government realized this. At the same time, the Eurasian Union offers attractive opportunities for production distribution and industry which would be uncompetitive on the European market. The weakness of the Eurasian Union is lack of technologies and the need to modernize the economies of its members. Russia and Kazakhstan are raw material exporters. The problem could be solved by reinvestment of resources in diversification of the national economy. Such major state-run concerns as Gazprom and SOCAR are drivers of development models aimed at encouraging internal demand and the consumer capacity of the population.
The possible fears of Azerbaijan about losing independence in case of joining the EaEU are understandable, but they are exaggerated. For example, despite its membership in the Eurasian and Customs Unions, Kazakhstan remains an independent state and can successfully develop its relations with Europe and China. Moreover, Baku could try to get beneficial conditions for itself, considering the objective interests of the country. Finally, Azerbaijan could sign an association agreement with the EaEU as the first step on the way to full membership of the organization. I think Russia could agree with various options, if it wants to make Azerbaijan a strategic partner.
However, Azerbaijan won’t accept a reduction of sovereignty. The Kremlin should realize this and try to fulfill its plans in balance with its partners – just like the USA does with the EU countries. It means close ties with a big power should bring political and economic benefits to minor partners, and at the same time they should feel free. Love of “the Russian bear” seemed to be chokehold for certain countries in the past. But this can be corrected.
