Sergei Mamedov: “There will be no Minsk-3; there will be another Maidan”

Sergei Mamedov: “There will be no Minsk-3; there will be another Maidan”

Interview by Vladimir Nesterov. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza


Today the Prime Minister of Ukraine Arseny Yatsenyuk has stated the necessity of putting the Armed Forces of Ukraine on combat-ready alert and keeping bomb shelters equipped in the country. President Poroshenko has finally presented a draft bill on providing certain regions of Donbas with a special order of local self-administration to the Verkhovna Rada. Sergei Mamedov, the deputy head of the Russian Federation Council Committee on Regulations and Organization of Parliamentary Activity, told Vestnik Kavkaza about the ideas of the Ukrainian Premier, fulfillment of the Minsk Agreements by Kiev, and other aspects of the conflict in the southeast of Ukraine.

-          Not long ago, actually this night, a 150-page report on crimes by Ukrainian militants in Donbas was published. What is the document? Who has developed it? Why is it important?

-          To be fair, it wasn’t published this night. It was presented to the UN. The author of the report is Maxim Grigoryev, a member of the Public Chamber. This is the second part of the report. The first part was presented in autumn. In our Federation Council Committee on Social Support for Residents of the Southeast of Ukraine we communicate with refugees and constantly hear stories about events there and the behavior of Ukrainian security officials. That’s how the first volume of the report appeared last autumn. There were awful details of the developments. The report was translated into English and became part of the Foreign Ministry’s project ‘The White Book.’ It was spread among international organizations. Unfortunately, we didn’t receive a serious response.

However, we have continued our work. The new part includes reports on late events in Debaltsevo. They concern only the peaceful population.

The report registered evidence by people who were tortured. There are documentarily proved materials, i.e. these are certain people with certain names, certain evidence, certain written or recorded materials. Probably someday the materials could become grounds for indictment.

-          It means de facto there is no analysis, there are raw facts, evidence by people who have passed through the suffering.

-          Certain people tell their stories. There is no fiction in the report; we have described the situation only. But still this is something incredible. Probably one can explain the outrages of the fascists – they took enemies prisoner, tortured them to find out the disposition of units…

-          Who did torture people? Were they units of the Ukrainian regular army or volunteer squadrons, the so-called National Guard?

-          As the main object of tortures and insults are peaceful people, they don’t separate them. People say “the armed forces of Ukraine.” We want to believe that the regular units of the Ukrainian army have nothing in common with this. We constantly find some explanations and justifications of their deeds. We say that these are some squadrons and the Right Sector. However, there are documentarily registered facts that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are doing this as well. People were forced to give evidence in a court in front of a judge. We have registered data on such facts. It seems today the Ukrainian authorities need such justice.

-          Let’s talk about one of the provisions of the Minsk Agreements – the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the front line. Fighters of the LPR were first to carry it out; then the DPR joined them. And the Ukrainian units undertook the withdrawal at a last minute, after demands of absolute silence. However, today there is much speculation about it.

-          The Ukrainian units carried it out relatively.

-          Is there evidence by independent observers who can check whether the withdrawal has actually taken place?

-          The only organization which has the rights to do this and has a mandate from the international community is the OSCE. However, the OSCE mission has no access to many regions of deployment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. And our colleagues and partners regard this with favor. They didn’t go to Debaltsevo, as the militias said: “We are ready to give you access to our territory, but we cannot guarantee your security, as the other side is shooting there.” It was considered to be a rejection by the militias to welcome the mission of observers. Do you remember how it was exaggerated in the mass media?

At the same time, an absolutely cynical rejection to see what is going on is treated normally. However, I think we should be thankful to the OSCE mission, and we should record the developments.

We can see that the militias are withdrawing their weapons. We can see trains of trucks and armored vehicles which are withdrawn and abandoned at checkpoints. At the same time, we can see that Donetsk is still bombed, even though there should be no heavy weapons in the zone.

Kiev tells us that the militias are shooting at themselves. We have been hearing this story for a long time. Some people believe it. The international community believes it. Many people in Europe believe that there are separatists and aggressive Russia. 

-          The ceasefire has been violated many times in recent times in the conflict zone. On one night, the number of violations exceeded fifty along the whole front line. What do you think, who benefits from such provocations and who puts the second Minsk Agreements in doubts, even though they were reached with difficulty?

-          It is an interesting question. I always think about that. Speaking about shooting, Petro Poroshenko said two days ago that the ceasefire has been broken more than 100 times since the signing of the Minsk Agreements. It was considered to be an information bomb, it is a rebuke toward Russia.

A few days ago the master of fiction Arseny Yatsenyuk, who is constantly inventing a new phrase or some wonderful word combination, said that Ukraine was at war with Russia. And that’s the most popular position in Europe: there is an aggressor – Russia – which is fighting Ukraine by means of its “puppets” in the southeast.

-          You should admit that the phrase is nice and easy to remember.

-          The most important thing is that big money is allocated to the phrase. The phrase makes them out to be proud patriots who are fighting a big bear, an aggressor who has claims on their territory. Our President has on numerous occasions said that we don’t want these territories; it is in the interests of Russia that the southeast regions should stay in Ukraine with broader autonomy or as part of a federalization. Any scheme is possible – you’re welcome! However, it is necessary to protect the interests of the Russian-speaking population on these territories. And nobody wants to listen to us.

According to the Minsk Agreements, on the first day after withdrawal of weapons it is necessary to start a dialogue on holding local elections, according to the Ukrainian legislation and the Ukrainian Law on the Timely Order of Local Self-Administration in Some Parts of the Donetsk and Lugansk Regions, as well as on the future arrangements in these parts, according to the mentioned law. No later than 30 days after signing the document, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine should approve a law which specifies the territory which is covered by the special regime, according to the Ukrainian Law on the Timely Order of Local Self-Administration in Some Parts of the Donetsk and Lugansk Regions. It should be based on the line which was defined by the Minsk Memorandum on September 19th 2014. The law on the special status of Donbas was adopted. But there is no definition of the territory. This is a framework law. That’s why one of the key provisions of the Minsk Agreements requires definition of the territories. It had to be adopted by the Rada as a law to fulfill the Minsk Agreements in the future. According to the Ukrainian laws, elections had to be held on the territory. Everybody agreed on this. The Minsk Agreements were signed on February 12th . February is a short month, and 30 days ran out on March 14th. However, Poroshenko only presented the law to the Rada on Saturday. Why couldn’t he do it before? Was it targeted disregard? Postponement can always be easily explained: “We didn’t do it before, as first of all we had to cease fire, and nobody did it. The militias broke the ceasefire a thousand times.” Such an approach is beneficial for the leaders of the Normandy Four who signed the document for Europe.

The same story applies to any provision of the Minsk Agreement. They can always explain why the provisions are not being fulfilled. And their explanations are accepted. At the same time, any justifications by the militias are violently opposed. So, I cannot say what will happen next to the Minsk Agreements. I think there will be no Minsk-3, if Minsk-2 doesn’t work.

-          There would be no sense.

-          Nobody will believe in it. Remember the expectations from Minsk-1. We are working with refugees and registering the flows. On September 5th the inflow to our country was equal to the outflow.

Today, for the first time in 8 months, since June, we have a crowd of people on the border who want to leave our country. What does this mean? People believe in the Minsk Agreements. People have begun coming back. Winter has passed, and soon the sowing season will start. Imagine what will happen if the previous situation returns.

-          Is there any information on the inflow of refugees? How many people have found asylum in Russia?

-          The number stabilized after Minsk-1. 900 thousand people who can be called refugees are staying in Russia. In general there are 2.5 million Ukrainian citizens in our country. We count documents which are filled by people who addressed for issuing of this or that status. There are many of them. Among 2.5 million people, 900 thousand are refugees. 

 

- Do you think that connecting parliamentary diplomacy to the Normandy platform can help?- In my opinion, it would be a correct step, it’s amazing why it still hasn’t been done. If we recognize the elections to the Rada, we recognized the president, then we must have the instruments of parliamentary diplomacy as part of the execution of the Minsk agreements. It would be easier and more comfortable to work on the implementation of the Minsk Agreement if there were some kind of parliamentary group which would evaluate each paragraph within its competence, promote and help to implement it. But there isn't one, because a result is not necessary for Kiev. They need an IMF loan and they declare that a million refugees from the south-east have settled in other regions, and therefore they are suffering enormous deprivation of the entire country. This, in itself, is ridiculous. Firstly, who do we have here, if they have a million? Secondly, who will now go from the south-east to the west of Ukraine, where a man will receive a gun in his hands immediately, and if you don't take the gun, then you’ll get 5 years in prison?In fact, Russia today has an unprecedented challenge in history - no country ever had a million people coming in four months. We meekly comply with all the obligations. We have all children going to school, we have almost all students arranged in higher education institutions, taxation has been adopted by a separate law. And nobody notices it, like it should be like that.Ukraine had to obtain $180 million from the United Nations to overcome the "incredible hardship," and now we are talking about 340 million. For them it is a question of money.- A little more about the money. The IMF is now allocating to Ukraine a tranche of 17.5 billion dollars. We all remember what pours out from such assistance, for example, the EU aid to Greece. First of all, it is a cost reduction, and quite tough. Under the circumstances we have just discussed with you, is there anything for Ukraine to reduce?- Reducing costs is a good thing. But always, for some reason, in Ukraine in particular, the question of reducing costs is limited only by one thing - a reduction of social obligations. Reductions of salaries, pensions, allowances, increased energy prices. But we know these prices, they are open, all of the Ukrainian government regulations have nowhere to be hidden.The average pension in Ukraine is 1200 grzywna at the rate of 30. How many dollars is this? Do we have at least one region of the country where there is such a pension?Certainly there is a political moment presented. Perhaps there is a need to get the money as soon as possible. This is seen in a number of steps by the Ukrainian authorities. They need to work quickly, and operations in the southeast also largely associated with this. Imagine, Poroshenko signs a decree that now the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is 250 thousand people. If everything in the south-east were over now, where would these 250,000 go? They would go to Kiev and say, "Petr Alexeevich, in our country the pension is 1200 grzywna, no social obligations, gas costs so much, other utilities so much. What did we come out on the Maidan for?". And a Maidan will happen again. So there will be no Minsk-3, there will be another Maidan.

- Do you think that connecting parliamentary diplomacy to the Normandy platform can help?

- In my opinion, it would be a correct step, it’s amazing why it still hasn’t been done. If we recognize the elections to the Rada, we recognized the president, then we must have the instruments of parliamentary diplomacy as part of the execution of the Minsk agreements. It would be easier and more comfortable to work on the implementation of the Minsk Agreement if there were some kind of parliamentary group which would evaluate each paragraph within its competence, promote and help to implement it. But there isn't one, because a result is not necessary for Kiev. They need an IMF loan and they declare that a million refugees from the south-east have settled in other regions, and therefore they are suffering enormous deprivation of the entire country. This, in itself, is ridiculous. Firstly, who do we have here, if they have a million? Secondly, who will now go from the south-east to the west of Ukraine, where a man will receive a gun in his hands immediately, and if you don't take the gun, then you’ll get 5 years in prison?

In fact, Russia today has an unprecedented challenge in history - no country ever had a million people coming in four months. We meekly comply with all the obligations. We have all children going to school, we have almost all students arranged in higher education institutions, taxation has been adopted by a separate law. And nobody notices it, like it should be like that.

Ukraine had to obtain $180 million from the United Nations to overcome the "incredible hardship," and now we are talking about 340 million. For them it is a question of money.

- A little more about the money. The IMF is now allocating to Ukraine a tranche of 17.5 billion dollars. We all remember what pours out from such assistance, for example, the EU aid to Greece. First of all, it is a cost reduction, and quite tough. Under the circumstances we have just discussed with you, is there anything for Ukraine to reduce?

- Reducing costs is a good thing. But always, for some reason, in Ukraine in particular, the question of reducing costs is limited only by one thing - a reduction of social obligations. Reductions of salaries, pensions, allowances, increased energy prices. But we know these prices, they are open, all of the Ukrainian government regulations have nowhere to be hidden.

The average pension in Ukraine is 1200 grzywna at the rate of 30. How many dollars is this? Do we have at least one region of the country where there is such a pension?

Certainly there is a political moment presented. Perhaps there is a need to get the money as soon as possible. This is seen in a number of steps by the Ukrainian authorities. They need to work quickly, and operations in the southeast also largely associated with this. Imagine, Poroshenko signs a decree that now the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is 250 thousand people. If everything in the south-east were over now, where would these 250,000 go? They would go to Kiev and say, "Petr Alexeevich, in our country the pension is 1200 grzywna, no social obligations, gas costs so much, other utilities so much. What did we come out on the Maidan for?". And a Maidan will happen again. So there will be no Minsk-3, there will be another Maidan.

 

- The next convoy to Donetsk and Lugansk is being prepared. The last convoy with seeds, food and construction materials has just recently left. Does anyone in the West help Ukraine in a similar way? I mean the Kiev authorities. And is the attitude to the Russian humanitarian convoys changing abroad?


- I do not have all the information from the other side, I would not like to say 'no', but I cannot say 'yes' either. According to refugees and emergency workers, there are no other convoys to be seen. There are one-off actions - one lorry came, or two or three. They do not enter other convoys for some reason. There would be a humanitarian catastrophe if there weren't our convoys. The Southeast would not live without our humanitarian convoys.

 

- I remember our first convoy to the territory of the south-east of Ukraine, what the attitude of the West was to it. Do you remember the very first one, which was not allowed and then it was allowed to enter?


- It wasn't allowed to enter, it passed through itself. Even now, each convoy must notify the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to go there. There were a number of convoys, whose contents were examined by representatives of the Ukrainian customs service. It is an indisputable legal fact. And it is nonsense and an absolute lie that the convoys are entering and bringing in something incomprehensible.


- How do your foreign colleagues, in particular from the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, relate to these convoys?


- In most cases, it is regarded as military cargo, which is brought under the guise of a humanitarian aid convoy, almost guns. Although, in retrospect, to the time of communication with our European colleagues, I can say that attitude is changing. Russian journalists have paid with their blood for truthful information. Little by little, drop by drop, information comes in.

 

The first convoy stood about seven days, there was perishable food, and there was no coordination from Kiev. They had to either turn around and leave, or to deliver at their own risk. It was taken at their own risk, so basically this is how all of these convoys enter.

 

There was an interesting story with the Red Cross. Our first convoys were under the auspices of the Red Cross, which operates in Russia and Ukraine, and we are grateful for their work. But the convoy is considered to be a load of the Red Cross only if it us produced by the Red Cross itself. That is, the Red Cross collects donations of money, forms a convoy and then interstate coordination gets easier. But we have not had a chance to do it. And now we haven't.

 

The last convoys drove simply glass to Lugansk. In winter, glass is a very big problem, because it is necessary to glaze windows.

 

That is, the formation of the convoy is made by word of mouth. I take my hat off to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, of course. It's just something incredible what it has been doing for nine months.

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