Progress in reaching a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2024 is highly likely, according to a report on forecasts for 2024 published by the authoritative US analytical center Stratfor.
Yerevan is ready to conclude a peace agreement with Baku, although the parties still have disagreements over the conditions of regional transit corridors, the center's analysts believe, News.am reports.
"Armenia will use its growing political ties with the West and the latter's military support to counter Baku's insistence, but given the fact that Yerevan has little leverage, it is likely to accept Baku's demands for transit through southern Armenia and border delimitation",
Stratfor analysts say.
Significant progress in the negotiations is highly likely to happen in the first half of the year. Moreover, despite growing signals of Yerevan's desire to move away from Moscow, Russia's influence in the South Caucasus will only strengthen as Armenia remains in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the country's economy is closely linked to the Russian economy.
At the same time, bilateral relations and trade ties between Azerbaijan and Russia will reach a new level. East-West transit in the South Caucasus will be still carried out mainly through Georgia, while Baku will contribute to the development of North-South infrastructure connecting Russia with Iran, the center's analysts believe.
