''It is important to prevent anarchy in Uzbekistan, as it would be a disaster not only for the republic, but also for the entire region,'' Assistant professor of the World Politics department at Lomonosov Moscow State University, Aleksey Fenenko, said in an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza. According to the expert, there are three possible scenarios for Uzbekistan after Karimov.
"In the first scenario a successor, a new person, one of his associates comes to power (for example, his daughter may become Karimov-2), as it happened in Turkmenistan. The current President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow replaced Saparmurat Niyazov. This is the most favorable scenario for Uzbekistan," he stressed.
In the second scenario we have the country’s elite split. "It may happen if the successor is not recognized by a part of the elite. It will lead to a long confrontation,’’ the expert noted.
The third scenario he described as catastrophic. "If this confrontation continues to increase it may lead to intensification of extremism and an attempt to criminalize Uzbekistan, which we witnessed in 1989-1990 in Andijan – the uprising of the drug barons,’’ the political expert reminded.
This may cause the situation to swing back to the 1990s and make Uzbekistan a source of instability in the region. “This must be avoided,’’ Aleksey Fenenko concluded.