Ankara continues to consider the Turkish Stream project as a commercial deal and is ready to hold Russian-Turkish negotiations on its implementation, Turkish Deputy Chief of Mission in Washington, Tugay Tuncer, told Sputnik.
"We still see the Turkish Stream project as a commercial deal. If Russia wants to talk, we can come and discuss it. Both sides need to sit down and talk about the details of the agreement, as we did on the Blue Stream project ten years ago," RIA Novosti cited him as saying.
On 14 January, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that Moscow is ready to implement such a project, in case the European and Turkish partners finally show interest. He also confirmed that negotiations over the Turkish Stream pipeline construction are suspended.
In December, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the project will be realized if Turkey manages to obtain guarantees from Brussels.
A senior fellow at the Energy Policy Branch of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ivan Kapitonov, said in an interview with the correspondent of Vestnik Kavkaza that "the issue of implementation of the Turkish Stream for Turkey is quite acute, due to the fact that its energy demand is great." It is in second place among all Russian gas consumers after Germany and it has very high positive dynamics of demand. Ankara simply cannot cover its needs in gas any other way, only through Russia, it simply does not have other available sources. If we consider the question of deliveries of liquefied natural gas, Ankara has no proper infrastructure for the storage of such volumes and regasification," he said.
"Therefore, Ankara is interested in supplies of Russian gas. Furthermore, it is counting on a substantial discount. So I think Russia has made the right decision to suspend the project until better times, because there are too many questions, answers to which cannot be found at the moment," the expert believes.
As for Russia, then the Turkish Stream issue is also connected with the implementation of the Nord Stream-2 project. "The fact is that these two projects compete with each other and we can expect significant changes only through such a healthy competition. In fact, we need to realize only one of these two projects to deliver the proper amount of gas to Europe. So, of course, one way or another, Russia has its own interests in the promotion of the Turkish Stream project to force Germany and Turkey to compete with each other," Kapitonov noted.
"However, we must understand that the Turkish Stream will supply gas not only to Turkey. Significant volumes of gas will be supplied further to the European market. If we manage to bypass the Third Energy Package and sell our gas to final consumers, then the project will become economically feasible. If we are not able to do it, a hub on Turkish territory will be established, so it would be engaged in the resale of Russian gas," he stressed.
Speaking about the obstacles to the realization of this project, the expert noted that "above all, we must recall the situation with the Russian pilot shot down in Syria". "And the second thing is incomprehensible gas discounts which Turkey will ask for," Ivan Kapitonov concluded.
According to an analyst of the USAK research center, Hassan Selim Ozertem, "it's difficult to say whether Turkey is interested in the implementation of the Turkish Stream, because the project was initiated more by Russia rather than Turkey." "Turkey is a pragmatic about the initiatives and states that it is open to all the project. But this statement can be seen not only as an interest in the project, but in terms of normalization of relations between Turkey and Russia," he said.
"I do not think there is interest in the project at this stage. Initially, there were a lot of questions about it: how the project will be financed, how the pipe will be filled with gas. In addition, Russia and the EU need to agree on many issues, for example how the gas will be sold to Europe," the expert noted.
The leading analyst of the National Energy Security, Igor Yushkov, believes that "Turkey does have a very great interest in the implementation of the Turkish Stream project, even at half capacity, which is 31.5 billion cubic meters per year." "It is certainly an extremely profitable project for Turkey from the economic point of view. It increases its energy security, because Turkey understands that Ukraine is a problematic transit, and it's not clear what will happen next, because now half of the gas from Russia passes through the territory of Ukraine through the Trans-Balkan pipeline. Therefore, firstly, they want to receive all the gas directly from Russia, and, secondly, to receive the transit fees, which Ukraine receives now. And Turkey will also increase its influence in the EU if it becomes a transit country," he explained.
However, the situation is complicated by the fact that "now there is struggle for influence between different groups in Turkey". "The clan closest to Erdogan wants to give up contacts with Russia. But on the other hand, they want to restore relations and implement economic projects. This is why we hear contradictory statements," the expert said.
"Russia is the largest supplier of natural gas to Turkey, it is most profitable to buy our gas, because both Azerbaijani and Iranian gas are more expensive," Yushkov added.
In his opinion, "Turkey does not suggest another decision, it just tells Russia to implement it as planned." "That is the South Stream route, which was directed to Bulgaria, turns south and goes to Turkey. Russia needs to implement the South Stream or the Turkish Stream, because, firstly, it is necessary to carry out fairly large deliveries to Turkey, as we have signed a long-term contract. And after the rejection of the transit through Ukraine we still have to supply Turkey with gas," the expert said.
"Of course, it's beneficial for Russia to implement the Turkish Stream, but there are political moments again. Because the Russian leadership will not engage in dialogue with Erdogan and his representatives now. And the implementation of the Turkish Stream is impossible without the signing of an intergovernmental agreement between Russia and Turkey," he said.
"The main obstacle for the Turkish Stream project is the lack of dialogue between Moscow and Ankara. So questions of where the pipe will go after Turkey and who should pay for the construction of a gas pipeline in Europe are already secondary," Yushkov concluded.
