Russia may face new power crisis in 6–7 years, unless new capacities will be introduced in the country, the head of Rosnano Anatoly Chubais said, speaking with Rossiyskaya Gazeta.
Now there is sufficient excess power in the country, but even ten years ago we did not have enough capacity in Primorsky Krai, Yekaterinburg, the south of the Urals, Western Siberia, Sochi," Chubais recalled, adding that the reform of the energy sector was able to solve this problem.
"But if we make a forecast for the future, then practically everyone agrees that this resource will be exhausted," the head of Rosnano said, adding that there is no uniformity across forecasts: some believe - by 2021, others - by 2023, the third - by 2025, RIA Novosti reported.
Of particular concern to the head of Rosnano is that power cuts may happen at the most dramatic moment, for example, in cold winter, and there is a risk that the maximum load of existing equipment would simply be not enough. "And if there is a shortage of electricity, the prices may rise," he warned.
A leading analyst of the National Energy Security Fund, a lecturer at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Igor Yushkov, speaking with a correspondent of Vestnik Kavkaza, noted that Rosnano is trying to play a key role in the management of renewable energy sources. "Look, Chubais talks about the deficit that needs to be filled by building renewable energy facilities and suggests that these stations be built by Rosnano. In fact, he claims to be the main operator of alternative energy, competing here with Rosatom," the expert is confident.
Igor Yushkov stressed that even if there is a shortage of energy, the construction of gas stations would be much more effective now. "They are cheaper and much more efficient, especially since there are significant gas reserves in Russia. The West really actively builds renewable power stations now, but because it no longer has its own fossil resources. We actively build gas stations and put them into operation, there will be no wear-out failure for 6-7 years. We also build new nuclear units, and as a whole there is a surplus of energy capacities," the leading analyst of the National Energy Security Fund drew attention.
The director of the Institute of Economics of Natural Monopolies of RANHiGS, Sergey Repetyuk, confirmed that there is a surplus in the Russian electricity sector. "Until recently, there was a problem of inefficient capacities being withdrawn, but now it has been eliminated, and as a whole now the level of electricity consumption is approximately at the level of 1993 - and until now no revolutionary increase in electricity consumption is forecast," the expert said.
According to him, the crisis can be expected only in case of a revolutionary leap in technology. "If we reject the crisis associated with technogenic catastrophes that will lead to the withdrawal of inefficient capacities from operation, then there could be a crisis caused by a breakthrough technology related to renewable energy sources, in particular, with the accumulation of electric power. Then our power system will simply be obsolete. When cheap autonomous power supplies will appear, a huge energy system of today will cease to be effective and necessary, because it will be more expensive," Sergey Repetyuk concluded.
