Are "bears" beginning to emerge from oilmarkets?

The number of stakes on the fall in oil prices at the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by 131,617, i.e. by 67% in the period from February 2nd.

According to the US Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), it was the biggest reduction in the last ten years. A similar situation occurred in the market in September 2009 and December 2012, but now these changes take place much more rapidly than in those two previous cases.

During the week that ended on March 22nd, participants of tradings minimized 25,435 stakes on cheaper oil, or 28%. It led to a decrease in the number of such contracts to 64,431, which is a nine-month low.

The number of stakes on the increase in prices showed only minimal growth. During the same period, they increased by 5844, i.e. 2%, RBC reports.

Sberbank CIB analyst Valery Nesterov agreed in an interview with a correspondent of Vestnik Kavkaza with the fact that we are currently witnessing a sharp decline in the number of those who expect a reduction in prices.

"Various factors are still operating. On the one hand, the overproduction of oil large stocks, commodity stocks remained. On the other hand, a number of countries reduced production, including the United States, where the number of drilling rigs is at a low. Therefore, there are certain expectations from the upcoming meeting in Doha with a number of major manufacturers, especially OPEC and Russia," he said.

"Now the market is at a crossroads. I would say that the next factor that can influence the price dynamics will be the success or failure of the conference. But, again, we shouldn't exaggerate its importance, because the whole situation still seems to be stabilising. In recent days many analysts have predicted that it is possible the price might continue to decline to $20-25 per barrel. Now forecasters believe that the price has stabilized and it may gradually begin to grow further," the expert added.

The deputy director of the energy department of the Energy and Finance Institute, Alexey Belogoryev, noted that "the number of those who made the medium stake in lower prices really reduced during the next few months. At least in December-January, or maybe even earlier."

"This is linked with the intersection of a number of factors, including expectations of a possible stabilization of OPEC and Russia, i.e. the key Petroleum Exporting Countries. Negotiations began in January, but preparations started in November and December. Now these expectations still remain, although it is still unknown what the results of these negotiations will be,'' he said.