Does ruble reach its maximum?

Does ruble reach its maximum?

Today's trading on the Moscow stock exchange resulted a sharp decline in the dollar and the euro exchange rates against the ruble. As of 10:40 (MSK), the euro exchange rate fell below the level of 60 rubles, and as of 11:40 it reached 59.79 rubles, returning to a low of June 2015.

At the moment of the opening of the stock exchange US currency traded at 56.84 rubles, in an hour it reached a low of 56.55 rubles. Another hour was required by dollar to get over the threshold of 57 rubles.

Currently, the dollar traded at 57.34 rubles, euro at 60.51 rubles.

In this regard, Vestnik Kavkaza asked the experts what is happening to the ruble, which regularly violates the forecasts of experts.

The head of the Regional Banking Association, the chairman of the Duma Committee on Economic Policy, Innovation and Entrepreneurship Development, Anatoly Aksakov, explained the unanticipated strengthening of the ruble by the undervaluation of the Russian economy. "It was assumed that the macroeconomic situation in the country will be worse. None of the experts expected that the strength of the Russian economy will be as high, and the economic growth rate and macroeconomic indicators  will be better than expected. Of course, it works on the strengthening of the ruble. Expectations for a phased lifting of sanctions are also helping, at least among investors there is such a sustainable expectation," the deputy said.

The head of the Duma Committee on Economic Policy explained that these expectations are based on pragmatics. "there is a calculation that the sanctions regime will not last forever and we must do something already now, especially since all the imposed restrictions had little influence on Russian policy," Anatoly Aksakov stressed.

According to him, the intervention to correct the ruble exchange rate downward should happen in the coming days. "I think the Ministry of Finance will enter the market to replenish both the reserve fund and the welfare fund," the deputy assured.

Advisor on macroeconomics to the CEO of the 'Opening-Broker' brokerage house, economist Sergey Hestanov, expressed confidence that the current strengthening of the ruble is only catching up the recent sharp increase in oil prices. "Over the past year, the ruble has strengthened not so much as oil prices increased. What we are seeing now is an echo of a strong oil growth. At the same time, such a strong ruble is not favorable for exporters and the Russian budget, so we can conclude that the Bank of Russia will intervene soon," he warned.

According to him, bureaucratic delays in agreeing the intervention plans also strengthen the ruble.

The change in the balance of exports and imports strengthens the ruble as well. "Our imports fell more than exports. Most people went to the so-called savings behavior. It helps to reduce the demand for currency. It should be added that none of the exchange rate formation theories completely explains the situation, that is why we would understand why the ruble is strengthening now, only when it starts to weaken again," the advisor on macroeconomics to the CEO of the 'Opening-Broker' brokerage house concluded.

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