Today the US currency during the trading process at the Moscow Stock Exchange has crossed its psychological barrier of 60 rubles for the first time since February 2017. The cost of the euro has crossed the barrier of 67 rubles for the first time since December 2016.
As of 10:20 am (MSK), the dollar exchange rate increased by 0.52 rubles on the Moscow exchange and was worth 60.15 rubles, the euro rose 0.67 rubles and was worth 67.01 rubles. As of 11:50 am, the dollar rate fixed at the level of 60.01 rubles.
The ruble fell against the dollar and the euro against the background of a steady decline in oil prices. The cost of the August futures of Brent crude oil on London's ICE trading decreased by 1% to $45.53 per barrel.
A professor at the department of the stock market and investments at the Higher School of Economics, Alexander Abramov, speaking to Vestnik Kavkaza, noted that the effect of those factors, which provided the ruble high rate in the last six months, came to an end. "First of all, there was a relative stabilization of oil prices and the high rate of the Russian Central Bank during this period. I think that in the long term the ruble exchange rate will invariably depend on oil. The stronger the change in oil prices is, the higher the correlation of the ruble with them is, and other factors, such as verbal intervention, changes in interest rates, liquidity fluctuations in the banking system, start to noticeably influence the ruble exchange rate only in the case of stable oil," he explained.
Alexander Abramov said that regular forecasts of the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Development about the imminent fall of the ruble rate below 65 rubles per dollar are the consequence of the current weakening of the Russian currency, not its cause. "Over the past three months, there has been a growing outflow of portfolio investment from Russia, which is usually done on the eve of a weakening of the ruble. There are attempts to re-use OPEC as a tool for changing trends in the oil market, but they are unsuccessful. The Finance Ministry's verbal intervention is following main events and tries to state that it is not connected with the actions of the department, but that they have already predicted it," the professor at the department of the stock market and investments at the Higher School of Economics believes.
Professor of the RANEPA faculty of Finance, Money Circulation and Credit, Yuri Yudenkov agreed with the fact that it is not yet possible to remove the influence of oil prices on the ruble exchange rate. "The drop in oil prices still leads to a depreciation of the ruble, which is accompanied by a decrease in the key rate. There is also an indirect factor, such as a decrease in the volume of assets of the banking system that does not contribute to market stability. It is important to note the so-called carry trade, due to which the ruble exchange rate is partially formed under the influence of the currency volume coming from the mixed market from speculators: if speculators leave our market, the ruble will become cheaper," he warned.
At the same time, the Ministry of Finance will not take any supporting actions, since the weakening of the ruble is in line with its plans. "Both verbal interventions and purchases by the Ministry of Finance do not contribute to the strengthening of the ruble. The department is now in favor of a depreciation, since in that case it closes the budget, which means that it will be possible to fulfill set tasks," Yury Yudenkov concluded.
