The ruble exchange rate is strengthening against the dollar and the euro on the Moscow Stock Exchange: the dollar declined by 0.18 rubles and was worth 55.9 rubles,
The euro exchange rate fell 0.24 rubles and was worth 59.65 rubles, Gazeta.ru reported.
As of 10:17 am, the dollar reached the rate of 55.91 rubles on the Moscow Stock Exchange, the euro - 55.72 rubles, as of 10.19 am.
The head of the Regional Banking Association, the chairman of the Duma Committee on Economic Policy, Innovation and Entrepreneurship Development, Anatoly Aksakov, speaking with a correspondent of Vestnik Kavkaza, explained that the ruble is still fundamentally tied to the oil price, although a certain weakening of this dependence can be noted.
Oil prices, he said, have recently increased and became more stable. "The OPEC and non-OPEC agreement on output cuts helped the stability of oil prices.In addition, in summer, oil prices usually rise due to increased demand for petroleum products," the expert said, noting also the effect of carry trade.
Aksakov pointed out that the slowdown in the economic recession played a role in the stability of the ruble, as a result of which this year we can expect GDP growth of up to 2%. Another factor strengthening the stability of the ruble is the difference in interest rates in Russia and abroad. "Naturally, speculators are trying to make money on this difference: they acquire rubles and place Russian assets," the head of the Regional Banking Association, the chairman of the Duma Committee on Economic Policy, Innovation and Entrepreneurship Development added.
At the same time, the parliamentarian warned that over time the dependence of the national currency on oil will be weakened.
Assessing the possible dollar exchange rate, Anatoly Aksakov suggested that until the summer it will fluctuate in the range from 50 to 60 rubles.
The director of the Center for Studies of World Energy Markets at the RAS Institute of Energy Research, Vyacheslav Kulagin, also admitted that despite the multiplicity of factors affecting the ruble, one of the key factors is the oil price. "Earlier, the ruble weakened against the backdrop of declining oil prices, even more than it should have. Then it strengthened, and now it is in the middle position, which roughly corresponds to the oil price of about $55 per barrel," he explained.
The expert noted that the oil price has not undergone any serious changes for several months, remaining at the level of $50, which can be called a comfortable corridor.
Kulagin urged not to forget about other factors of influence on the ruble, including the situation in the domestic economy. According to him, the state of economy and currencies of those countries, whose currencies are compared to the ruble, is among these factors: a certain role is played, in particular, by the dollar-euro ratio.
