Russia's Ministry of Economic Development has published a new prediction of the economic situation for the next three years, assuming the Western sanctions will remain in place to the end of this period.
This year, the economy ministry expects Russia's GDP to be 2.1% in 2017 and 2.1%-2.3% in 2018-2020, according to Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin.
The ministry increased the forecast of the average annual price for Urals oil to $49 per barrel this year, and to $43.8 per barrel in 2018.
The forecast for the ruble exchange rate for the end of this year has been raised from 68 rubles to 63 rubles per dollar. The ruble exchange rate at the end of 2020 is expected to be 68.9 rubles per dollar (73.8 rubles per dollar in April).
The ministry expects inflation to be 3.7% this year (against the previous 3.8%) and 4% for the next three years.
The growth of industrial production this year by 2% is expected, and by up to 2.5% in 2018-2020. The growth forecast in retail trade turnover in Russia drop to 1.2% from 1.9% in 2017. At the same time, according to the forecast, growth in the next year will be 2.9%.
The forecast for the growth in fixed asset investment in 2017 increased to 4.1%, and to 4.7-5.7% per year in 2018-2020.
The Ministry of Economic Development slightly increased the forecast of real incomes growth for the population this year - up to 1.2% and up to 2.1% in 2018.
The director of the Institute of International Economics at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ruslan Grinberg, speaking to Vestnik Kavkaza, noted that the GDP growth of 2.1-2.3% would be a positive outlook for countries with developed economies, but not for Russia, which is emerging from the crisis.
"We need at least 5% in order to start a real growth. It is necessary to stimulate investment and increase state activity, but it is not envisaged yet, while it is possible that there will be no 2% growth. It is clear that the ministry, which is in charge of the economy, should be optimistic, so they are cautiously optimistic in this forecast," he said.
The professor at the department of the stock market and investments at the Higher School of Economics, Alexander Abramov, drew attention to the fact that the forecast speaks primarily about the department's optimism regarding the dynamics of the Russian economy this year. "In my opinion, theoretically, the growth of 2% can be achieved this year, but in general the forecast is too optimistic, proceeding from the price of $49 per barrel of Urals oil. If oil stays at this level by the end of the year, then 2% of GDP growth will be fulfilled," the economist expects.
He explained the increase in the forecast for the average Urals price in the next year to $43.8 per barrel by fixing the trend for a slow increase in oil prices. "Brent this year grew by about 5%, and by 8-10% in July. That is, the ministry forecast that the slow growth of oil prices will continue. This is a policy of economic optimism. In some way it may be useful, but so far it does not indicate any sustainable growth factors," Alexander Abramov warned.
One of such factors is a constant inflow of investments. "For half a year, investments have grown by almost 5% - it is a reason for optimism, as well as an increase in expert revenue of 30%. But real incomes of the population continue to decline, which affects the retail turnover. In July, it deteriorated along with real income statistics. I think that it will be possible to speak about sustainable growth only when the domestic demand of the population is restored," the professor at the department of the stock market and investments at the Higher School of Economics concluded.
