Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's statement that if the EU is not liberalizing the visa regime for Turkey in the middle of October, Ankara may scrap the agreement on migrants, came like a bolt out of the blue.
The publications in leading European media outlets show how worried by Erdogan's statement Europe is. Over the past few weeks Erdogan the dictator's reputation due to his tough measures against the coup plotters was replaced by timid accusations of blackmailing Europe. But many believe that Erdogan started doing a thing which the Turkish leaders could not achieve for over 60 years. The abolition of the visa regime for Turkish citizens by Europe has been a cornerstone in relations between Brussels and Ankara for a long time.
The disproportionate criticism of Erdogan by Western leaders, who, by the way, cannot hide their upset properly over the coup's failure against the current Turkish government on July 15 makes it possible to realize one thing: the relations between Turkey and the EU have reached a boiling point, which undoubtedly will affect the processes in the region.
Why did Erdogan decide to take extreme measures, or this is a loud statement designed for Turkish citizens? The political experts told us how Europe can get out of the depths of the migration crisis, with which it can stay all alone.
"If you had asked me before July 15 whether the statement was made for a domestic audience, then, of course, I would answer that it was. But after the failed coup a completely different reality has come to Turkey," the Turkish political scientist Aydin Sezer told Vestnik Kavkaza.
"I can tell you with absolute certainty that Erdogan's words are very serious and he is quite able to cancel the agreement reached with Europe," he said.
At the same time, the expert pointed out that Turkey's relations with the US and the West deteriorated after the failed coup. "Yesterday, the Italian prime minister said that Erdogan's countermeasures against those who attempted the coup, do not meet the EU standards. An Austrian minister complained that the Turks threatened him and Germany has imposed a ban on the broadcast of Erdogan's live address to the participants of the rally in Cologne last Sunday. All this demonstrates that Erdogan's statements on the migration project with the EU are not just words, but today's reality," Sezer said.
The political expert also noted that it is increasingly difficult for Turkey to caryy the burden of the migration crisis all by itself, which will ultimately affect the country's economic stability.
"For a long time, we continue to host refugees from Syria, and for doing this, we are told that we must continue to fulfill the obligations on Syrian refugees. On the other hand, we understand that there are purely human values, and not every country is able to settle 3 million people. Turkey is not able to carry the entire burden alone. Ankara must receive a very serious financial assistance or Europe has to abolish visas for its citizens. Because all this caused a political and economic crisis in Turkey itself," the political expert said.
The head of the Center for Strategic Development of the CIS Countries under the RAS Institute of Europe, Alexander Gusev, in turn, suggested that, most likely, Erdogan is playing on the sentiments of the Europeans. "It is clear that the situation is difficult both in Turkey and in Europe. But, nevertheless, Turkey is involved in the so-called 'open doors' program, it is not an EU member state. Therefore, now Erdogan will pursue a policy aimed to obtain additional financial resources from the EU. That is why I think that the sides will help each other and hold a dialogue," the expert believes.
In addition to the interest in money, Turkey is a transit country, located on the way from the Middle East to Europe, and refugees cannot bypass Turkey, the expert explained. "For Erdogan it is very important to ensure the sanitation of all refugees on his territory, in the second place, we are talking about financial investments in the Turkish economy by the EU countries and the European Central Bank. For Europeans it is also advantageous, because according to these preliminary agreements of 75 points, Turkey will get one legitimate Syrian in exchange for two illegal refugees. This is beneficial both for Turkey and for Europe," the head of the Center for Strategic Development of the CIS Countries under the RAS Institute of Europe said.
As for these 75 points, there is quite a serious point, which concerns the abolition of the visa regime with the EU. "This is the most difficult point. That is why the parties will find a compromise solution. Turkey declared the three-month state of emergency in connection with a failed military coup. Therefore, now it is too early to talk about that the visa-free regime in October: neither Turkey nor the EU are ready. I do not exclude such a possibility after October, because the visa regime for Turkish citizens is not entirely free. If you read the agreement carefully, it becomes clear that it is not intended for all Turkish citizens. Secondly, it works only 90 days, therefore, not all so rosy as it seems at first glance, Alexander Gusev believes.
