The declining role of foreign currency in Russia's economy is "a sign of a growing ruble', the Director of the Bank of Russia Monetary Policy Department, Igor Dmitriev, said.
"Try to remember when you make plans on your future spending and purchases in dollars or euros," the Izvestia newspaper cited him as saying. "But twenty years ago it was the foreign currency that was perceived as real money," Dmitriev pointed out.
Director of the Bank of Russia Monetary Policy Department said that another reason for the ruble's 'growing up' is the decline in inflation, recalling that by the end of the year it will reach the goal of 4%. In addition, he noted that the rates on loans are being reduced one-and-a-half times faster than on the key ones.
"This year, low inflation has started to reduce loan rates," Dmitriev stressed. "However, the decline in long-term rates lagged behind the decline in key ones. After decades of high inflation, banks are not convinced that a decline in inflation is a serious and long-lasting one," the head of the Central Bank's department explained.
Dmitriev concluded that the Central Bank of Russia should "achieve the consolidation of low inflation to ensure that lending rates decline steadily, and investors finance in long-term projects.
A professor at the department of the stock market and investments at the Higher School of Economics, Alexander Abramov, speaking to Vestnik Kavkaza, explained that he considers other criteria to be more significant for assessing the degree of the currency's growing up, and compared the ruble with the Chinese yuan, which were under almost the same conditions 10 years ago.
"Then it was proposed to turn both these currencies into reserve ones, and it became true for the yuan. It is stable: fluctuations of plus or minus 20% are nothing compared to the ruble. The currency matures when it becomes attractive to the mass of counterparties in the world: it is bought by central banks for reserves, it is used in calculations, they rely on it in international trade agreements. It can not yet be said about the ruble that they started to take it more seriously, since the upheavals of 2014 will not be forgotten for a long time," the expert explained.
According to him, it is necessary to diversify the economy, reduce the share of the oil and gas sector in it. In addition, the economist warned that in order to talk about positive trends, they need to be long-term.
Nevertheless, the expert admitted that indeed, Russians perceive the ruble as real money inside the country. "Probably, Russian citizens keep the most part of savings in rubles, and it is the achievement of the Central Bank. Another question is how much it really protects people from devaluation and inflation," he pointed out.
The professor at the department of the stock market and investments at the Higher School of Economics doubted the possibility of achieving the target inflation level of 4% by the end of the year, as tariffs for transportation and housing and communal services increased in July, respectively, inflation will increase. However, according to the expert, a serious outflow of foreign speculative capital is a much more significant trend. "In any case, the risk of devaluation of the national currency is a more urgent threat than an impact of inflation, although these tendencies are, of course, related," Alexander Abramov concluded.
Professor of the RANEPA faculty of Finance, Money Circulation and Credit, Yuri Yudenkov, explained that the ruble's stability is ensured today through stable oil prices and the presence of foreign speculators on the Russian market, as well as a high key rate. If, for example, oil prices lose the level of $48-50, the ruble exchange rate will decline.
Speaking about the ratio of the ruble and other currencies, the expert pointed out that since the value of the ruble is determined by oil prices, it means that in fact, 95% of it consists of European and American gold and foreign exchange reserves, so it is difficult to characterize it as an independent currency. "Therefore, the dollar and the euro are the global leading currencies, the yen and the yuan follow them, that's all," he said.
According to the economist, over the past 10 years Russians have understood the value of currency diversification. "They use currencies when they have a currency need. Moreover, Russians have started buying bitcoins and Yandex money. Secured people buy property abroad, invest in production and development, I'm talking about the production component, including in information economy. This is a new interesting trend," Yury Yudenkov said.
