Positive statistics prove that interest rates in US won’t change anything. For example, unemployment has fallen from 10% in November 2009 to 5% now, and GDP after the third quarter of this year increased in annual terms by 2.1%, whereas in the third quarter of 2008 it fell by 0.5%.
Expectations of an increase in interest rates are associated with recent statements by the head of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen, who repeatedly said that the possibility of monetary tightening was discussed at every meeting of the Federal Reserve Board. Her speech at the Economic Club in Washington on December 2nd attracted a lot of attention, when Yellen pointed out that the preservation of interest rates at the current level for a long period of time may undermine the stability of the financial markets and even plunge the US into recession.
It is predicted that the rate will be increased from the current 0-0.25% since 2006 up to 0.25-0.5%.
At the same time, financiers consider noticeable fluctuations in the markets as hardly likely in the event of such a decision, as it had been expected for a long time and now it corresponds to the current prices.
Professor of the Department of the stock market and investments at Higher School of Economics Alexander Abramov agreed with this viewpoint in an interview with a correspondent of Vestnik Kavkaza.
According to the expert, the rate was likely to be increased because of the "desire to avoid excessive heating of the US economy, as well as the desire for the money to have some market value, without provoking some inefficient projects." "When the rate is close to zero and society starts implementing a lot of projects on the premise that there is a low cost of money, these projects are ineffective. So I think the US economy is on the rise now, and it is quite logical that the US Federal Reserve finally decided to increase rates," Abramov noted.
The Chairman of the National Currency Association, Dmitry Piskulov, shared a similar viewpoint:
According to him, the decision to raise rates could be taken under the influence of "a US economic recovery and an acceptable level of unemployment." "There is an expectation that the growth rate will increase due to the background of cheap oil, although there is a twofold influence on various sectors of the economy. In addition, inflation is at a low level, but it tends to increase. Therefore, the US Federal Reserve that has been in a stage of almost zero money since 2008, realized that the economy was on the rise. That is why it was ready to increase the attractiveness of investments in the US economy," the expert said.
"If an increase doesn’t occur we will see a strengthening of the ruble, because the majority expect that it should increase, but it doesn’t happen, people will play it back," Dmitry Piskulov noted.
