Intelligence shared among Five Eyes nations indicates it is "highly unlikely" that the coronavirus outbreak was spread as a result of an accident in a laboratory but rather originated in a Chinese market, according to two Western officials who cited an intelligence assessment that appears to contradict claims by U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
"We think it's highly unlikely it was an accident," a Western diplomatic official with knowledge of the intelligence said. "It is highly likely it was naturally occurring and that the human infection was from natural human and animal interaction." The countries in the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing coalition are coalescing around this assessment, the official said, and a second official, from a Five Eyes country, concurred with it. The US has yet to make a formal assessment public.
The assessment from members of the exclusive intelligence-sharing group seems to undermine forceful claims by Trump and Pompeo in recent days, as they have doubled down on the assertion that the outbreak originated from a laboratory in Wuhan, China, rather than a market in the same region.
A third source, also from a Five Eyes nation, told CNN that the level of certainty being expressed by Pompeo and Trump is way out in front of where the current Five Eyes assessment is. This source acknowledged that there is still a possibility that the virus originated from a laboratory, but cautioned there is nothing to make that a legitimate theory yet.
The source added that "clearly the market is where it exploded from," but how the virus got to the market remains unclear.
But without greater cooperation and transparency from the Chinese it's impossible to say with total certainty, the first official added.
The third source said it is also possible the US is not sharing all of its intelligence. While the overwhelming majority is shared among the Five Eyes members, there are pockets of information that each country keeps to itself.
The US intelligence community issued a statement on Thursday saying it is still working to "determine whether the outbreak began through contact with infected animals or if it was the result of an accident at a laboratory in Wuhan." The statement said that the Covid-19 virus was not manmade or genetically modified.
A senior Office of Director of National Intelligence official said Monday night that the US has evidence for both theories.
