The current agreement on the closure of the Iranian nuclear dossier, the final details of which shall be agreed by the foreign ministers of Iran and the P5+1 in Vienna, would allow Iran to fully maintain its nuclear potential and use it beyond the expiration of the planned restrictions.
At the same time, at least some of the international sanctions will be lifted from the Islamic Republic, which will allow it to return to the world economy as a full participant, although the threat of a re-introduction of sanctions will remain.
The director of the Social and Political Research Center, the head of the Caucasus department at the Institute of the Commonwealth of Independent States, Vladimir Yevseyev, told Vestnik Kavkaza that the joint comprehensive plan of actions will not lead to a resolution of the Iranian nuclear crisis, but will only freeze it.
"If it would be real resolution of the Iranian nuclear crisis, the task would be not just reducing the number of working gas centrifuges or restricting the plutonium programs, but to reduce the amount of fissile material and its use in practical applications. We cannot speak about a resolution of the Iranian nuclear crisis until Iran accumulates this material," he stated.
"They have managed to agree on limiting Iran's nuclear program for a period of 10 years. Iran is allowed to have about 6 thousand gas centrifuges. Virtually all restrictions will be lifted after 10 years, except the limit on uranium enrichment, which will last 15 years. Also, Iran will not build a new heavy-water reactor for 15 years," the expert listed.
"There is another requirement, to which Iran will not agree, an indefinite ban on enterprises for processing nuclear fuel on its territory," Vladimir Yevseyev said.
The lifting of sanctions as one of the main outcomes of a successful conclusion of the negotiations still raises a number of questions. "Firstly, the new resolution will maintain the arms embargo and restrictions on the development of the Iranian missile program. The worst thing for Iran is that the West will veto the resolution, not Russia or China," the expert said.
Summarizing a decade of negotiations on the closure of the Iranian nuclear dossier, which will be completed any day now, the expert concluded that Iran will keep all its nuclear capabilities. "The main limitation will last for 10 years, but after this period the world will be completely different. I am skeptical about any document to be signed, but I fully support the lifting of the international and unilateral sanctions from Iran," he concluded.
