According to a new report by the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE) titled 'Comments on the state and business', the Russian economy is stuck at the bottom.
"A private domestic demand rose in July by 0.6%, which, however, looks modestly amid falling by 2.7% in the previous three months. As a result, there is a trend of reduced demand, the level of which in July was 12.6% below the average level in 2014," Gazeta.Ru cited the HSE expert Nikolai Kondrashov as saying.
The investment activity in Russia fell by 2.2% in the second quarter, and by 11.3% in comparison with the average level of 2014. The manufacturing sector also fell by 2.2%, but consumer demand slightly improved, as well as the retail trade turnover increased by 0.3%. The cargo turnover rose in July by 1.7% after rising 1.5% in June," the report said.
"Despite the widespread belief that by the end of this year, the economy will begin its transition to restorative growth, we think that a scenario of a stagnation until the end of the period of fiscal consolidation seems more likely," Kondrashov concluded.
At the same time, the head of Sberbank German Gref sees some signs of stabilization of the Russian economy.
"Despite the negative growth rate of the Russian economy in the first half of 2016, we see some signs of stabilization in conditions of growing oil prices and the strengthening of the ruble, which allows us to predict the positive dynamics of the GDP in the second half 2016," the bank’s press service cited him as saying.
"We expect a slow economic recovery which will allow us to keep our cost of risk under control," Gref said.
Senior Lecturer of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences of RANEPA, Boris Pivovar, said that any statistics by which the Higher School of Economics is guided, is based on the data obtained in the previous period. "As you probably know, there are concepts of 'aggregate demand' and 'aggregate supply' in the economy, and demand always reacts with a certain lag. And now I see some recovery, stabilization in different sectors of the economy. And most likely the current picture will reflect in the the future with the same time delay," the expert suggested.
With regard to the factors, which can help the Russian economy to improve, according to the economist, there is a huge amount of them. "Firstly, we see that the Russian government intends to launch a conditional sale of assets. They have already begun with the ALROSA auction, a certain package has been sold, and this testifies to the fact that foreign investors are interested in the Russian economy. The second point is that any positive news always have positive impact on the economic performance. Improving relations with Turkey after the conflict is certainly a positive aspect. Turkey is our main partner in trade and tourism, which is also important," Boris Pivovar said.
The expert focused on the issue of removal of the anti-Russian sanctions. "We see now that many are in favor of the cancellation or partial removal of the anti-Russian sanctions. Of course, they will not be removed at one time. But, nevertheless, some progress in terms of business is likely to begin in the near future," the senior lecturer of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences of RANEPA assured.
According to the economist, on the basis of the current dynamics it is quite possible to gain the country's economic growth of 1-2% in the next year.
