The Russian economy will overcome the stage of adjustment to external challenges in 2016, the head of the Russian Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina said.
"We expect that next year our economy will enter the stage of growth. We believe that this year is the year when our economy is completing adaptation to external challenges. Next year growth will occur thanks to moderate growth in consumption, and recovery of investment activities," she said, adding that economic growth will be not more than 1% in 2017.
Russian banks have sufficient capital reserve and will boost lending in the next year, according to Nabiullina.
"Sufficient capital has been formed in the banking system. Capital adequacy is comfortable for us - 12.7%. It means banks will boost lending and we expect they will more actively extend loans to the real sector of the economy next year," TASS cited her as saying.
Nabiullina noted that the Russian banking system has an adequate level of protection against cyber threats. "In order to prevent these risks, we have created a special center for monitoring and responding to cyber attacks, cyber threats. We monitor the situation, exchange data, give banks recommendations how to react in certain cases. I should say that our banking system, currently, has an adequate level of protection against cyber threats," she said, stressing that one should always be "on the alert" as attackers always refine their technology.
The issue of privatization of state-owned banks may only be raised after the credibility of the Russian banking system rises, Nabiullina said.
An associate professor of Stock Markets and Financial Engineering of RANEPA, Vasiliy Yakimkin, speaking with a correspondent of Vestnik Kavkaza, noted that Russia's economic growth next year will be provided in the first place due to the rise of agriculture, petrochemical and light industry. "Mechanical engineering will also show growth, as well as the military-industrial complex: after Syria the demand for Russian weapons significantly increased," he expects.
Speaking about the Central Bank's predicted growth of consumption, Vasiliy Yakimkin explained its with a low base effect. "The domestic consumption level is very low now, even the dynamics of GDP in the fourth quarter will be negative because of it. There can be explosive growth in the next year due to the low base effect, if people feel more confident, for example, because of the US political decisions on Russia, which will be followed by a normalization of relations with the EU," the economist believes.
As for Elvira Nabiullina's expectations for investment, it is likely to come from the Asia-Pacific region. "South Korea, China, India - these are the first three countries, from which we can expect large investments. I also do not exclude Russia's breakthrough with Japan, there could be regional investment in the Far East, the Kuril Islands. But Europe will inhibit its investors to the last and will change its behavior only after the US starts to increase its investments in the Russian Federation," he stressed.
Advisor on macroeconomics to the CEO of the 'Opening-Broker' brokerage house, economist Sergey Hestanov, in turn, predicts that no industry will show high dynamics of growth in the next year. "Most likely, growth will be moderate - 1-2% and evenly distributed among industries. Traditionally, the production of raw materials, primarily oil and gas, will be one of the leaders. From those industries, which have not previously been leaders, there will be rise of agriculture and food production," he explained.
At the same time, the economist expects that until mid-2017 the economy will continue to decline moderately. "It is likely that we will see a slight increase in the Russian economy in the second or third quarter. This pattern is associated with a number of indicators, such as GDP and retail sales: they are still declining, but the decline rate is dropping. In the middle of next year, equilibrium will be reached, after which, a small growth is likely," Sergey Hestanov said.
At the same time, the economist expects that until mid-2017 the economy will continue to decline moderately. "It is likely that we will see a slight increase in the Russian economy in the second or third quarter. This pattern is associated with a number of indicators, such as GDP and retail sales: they are still declining, but the decline rate is dropping. In the middle of next year, equilibrium will be reached, after which, a small growth is likely," Sergey Hestanov said.
According to his estimates, the consumption will really increase, but it is not that easy with investments. "Consumption is likely to increase a bit due to the fact that it has reduced very much. As for investments, many investors perceive Russia as a risky place to invest. If we talk about investments, they will be mainly from the government," the advisor on macroeconomics to the CEO of the 'Opening-Broker' brokerage house concluded.
