The Russian national currency is meeting 2016 in a worse state of health than in this year [the dollar is worth 73 rubles and the euro is worth 80 rubles, and exactly one year ago, the ruble was about 56 rubles per dollar and 69 rubles per euro]. However, this is not the limit: Russian experts expect that in the new year the ruble will continue to fall.
The chief economist at MTS-Bank, Yevgeny Nadorshin, drew attention to the preservation of all the factors, both external and internal, which weaken the ruble. "Oil is quite cheap, the outflow of capital is maintained, interest rates on ruble deposits are quite low. By and large, everything is playing against the ruble. I do not see any factors which could support the ruble at the moment. It is clear that there are revenues from exports, selling foreign currency by exporters during the tax period, but that was over last week. I should also note that if the inflation rate will decline at the pace which was predicted by the Central Bank, it will support the ruble very much, however, so there is no sign of that," the expert said.
Nadorshin explained that if the Central Bank cannot keep the inflation rate, banks will not be able to offer rates higher than the inflation rate, and it will make ruble deposits unattractive, they simply will not compensate for the inflation. "Therefore, if citizens want to save in rubles, it's better to do it investing in federal loan bonds, rather than in deposits, many of which may be loss-making. The currency now is of some speculative interest. I do not think that in the next year there will be a trend of a steady collapse of the ruble, but I expect to see 80 rubles per dollar and quite soon," the chief economist at MTS-Bank warned.
The director of the Institute of International Economics at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ruslan Greenberg, also admitted that he does not see is any positive factors that could contribute to the growth of the ruble. "The increase in oil prices is unlikely. I think that we will have a stagnation for year or two. "But the future is not so obvious, especially if the government will take active measures to strengthen the economy," he said.
Greenberg stressed that the most favorable exchange rate today is stable. "This also applies to the Russian economy and the population. It can be any rate, because the big problem now is that it is not possible to provide this stability. As a result, any economic activity and confident predictions are blocked," the director of the Institute of International Economics at the Russian Academy of Sciences noted.
The head of the department of stock markets and financial engineering of the Faculty of Finance and the Banking Business of RANEPA, Konstantin Korischenko, noted that in addition to thee increase in oil prices, there are other factors that can help the ruble in the new year. "In particular, this is a budget, if it will be decided to spend the reserve funds or efficiently or carry out borrowing to support the expenses of the budget. There are other important factors such as the external debt and balance of payments, although they will affect the situation to a lesser extent than oil and budget," he said.
"Fortunately or unfortunately, Russia is a big country and there are different economic actors in Russia - the state, population, large corporations, small businesses. There is a suitable exchange rate for each of them, so, unfortunately, there is no universal recipe for all citizens and all businesses in Russia. Our exchange rate is largely driven by the needs for a balanced budget. The exchange rate is linked to the the price of oil. And it will be a dominant factor that will determine the exchange rate of the ruble," Konstantin Korischenko concluded.
