As of 10:42 am (MSK), the dollar exchange rate was worth only 62.585 rubles at the morning trading session, and shortly before - 62.4375 rubles, which was a record for ruble this year. For the last time the ruble exchange rate was so high in November 2015. The euro exchange rate dropped to 70.28 rubles, dropping 30 cents since Friday's trading.
Strengthening of the ruble is due to the fact that the price of a barrel of Brent oil is above $50 - its December futures are $ 50.2 per barrel.
The MICEX index is also growing today. At the opening of trading on the Moscow stock exchange it rose by 0.2% to 1982.92 points.
A professor at the department of the stock market and investments at the Higher School of Economics, Alexander Abramov, speaking with a correspondent of Vestnik Kavkaza, noted that the strengthening of the ruble is caused by two factors. According to him, in the first place it is due to the fact that OPEC is reducing production quotas. "It increased oil prices slightly, but most importantly, it was due is the aggressive policy of stimulating the carry trade strategy pursued by the Bank of Russia. Current high key rate at a relatively low level of inflation is creating huge incentives for speculative foreign investors to buy ruble financial instruments," the expert said.
At the same time he pointed out that such a serious inflow of speculative money into Russia is not quite good because it creates certain risks. "In the case of small signs of returning all this money may start returning again. This is a threat to the ruble," the professor at the department of the stock market and investments at the Higher School of Economics explained.
In addition, he expressed a view that we should not expect the decline of the ruble this autumn, as the Central Bank said earlier that it would not reduce the key rate until the end of 2016. "But it seems to me that the decline of the ruble is just a matter of time, as long as it is based on an artificial, speculative factor. The strengthening of the ruble is the result of the promotion of speculators," Alexander Abramov concluded.
Professor of the RANEPA faculty of Finance, Money Circulation and Credit, Yuri Yudenkov, in turn, explained the current strengthening of the ruble exclusively by high oil prices. "Oil prices increased from almost $40 per barrel to $ 50. At the same time, there are still reasons to expect that the ruble will decline this autumn, as the Russian economy could not reach the normal level yet. The purchasing power of the population has dropped, the investment mechanisms do not work yet and there are low expectations - no one believes in the Russian economy so far," he warned.
