Caspian countries have a real chance to reach a consensus on the status of the Caspian Sea in the coming year," the Russian President`s special representative on delimitation and demarcation of Russian borders with CIS countries, Ambassador at large of the Russian Foreign Ministry Igor Bratchikov said.
He added that the main articles of the convention on the status of the Caspian Sea has already been agreed, and all the demands of the five countries are harmonically balanced in the document and national interests are not jeopardized, RIA Novosti reports.
"The parties understand that the Convention will be a compromise legal instrument providing clear and transparent rules for our interaction in various fields, resolving possible disputes, it will also become a reliable basis for maintaining a safe and predictable situation in the region, preserving the Caspian Sea as a sea of friendship and good-neighborliness," the diplomat added.
Political scientist Rovshan Ibragimov, speaking with a correspondent of Vestnik Kavkaza, noted that the signing of a convention on the status of the Caspian Sea requires, first of all, the political will of the Caspian Five. "They have said that the convention has been largely agreed for already several years, but it has not been signed yet. The problem here is that the definition of the status of the Caspian Sea requires a greater degree of political will than solutions to legal issues. The Caspian Sea for Russia and Iran is perceived as a soft underbelly, and mistrust persists, even in spite of the special legislation: Azerbaijan has confirmed that any military bases of third countries cannot be located in its territory," he explained, expressing pessimism about the prospects for the adoption of the convention.
The head of the Central Asia Department of the CIS Institute, Andrei Grozin, did not agree with Ibrahimov, recalling a number of reasons why it is profitable for the Caspian Five to sign a convention on the status of the Caspian Sea right now. "The convention is more than ever close to signing, according to the Caspian states. Of course, there have been times in the history of negotiations around the Caspian Sea, when, despite the agreement of 90-95% of the document, the signing was postponed to the next round of negotiations," he said.
"Judging by Russia's comments, Russia is the main co-sponsor of the negotiation process. Against the backdrop of the international situation, a good time is emerging to try to move the process of adopting a common convention from the dead end. As the tension in the Near and Middle East grows, the Caspian states are becoming increasingly interested in order to reduce the degree of mutual distrust, push many economic opportunities that will be opened after the signing of the convention. And these are not only the North-South corridor or oil projects, but also involvement in the One Belt One Road Initiative at a higher level," Andrei Grozin expects.
"Someone wants to become the main logistics hub for China, someone like Iran, considers the prospects of significantly increasing its export potential. Azerbaijan, Russia, and even Turkmenistan - all of them wants to participate in this mega-project, which has a huge investment potential," the expert drew attention.
"The signing of the convention will also make it possible to radically reorganize the whole security system, which is subject to constant threats from the Near and Middle East. It will significantly improve the climate of mutual trust, which will help reduce potential conflicts in the Caspian. In addition, it will show that the states are able to solve such a complex issue," Andrei Grozin concluded.
