The Russian economic situation improved in 2016 as compared with the last year, and the economy will expand about 1% in 2017, the Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said at a meeting with Italian businessmen.
“We expect that economic growth will amount to about 1% next year and will reach 2% or 2.5% in the next three years,” the minister noted.
According to Ulyukayev, consumer prices will rise 5.5% in 2016 and 4% in 2017.
“This year the figure is record low for us. I understand that for the European level that a 5.5% inflation is low sounds quite weird, nevertheless it is so for Russia,” Ulyukayev said.
“This year inflation will be about 5.5% and it is quite likely that it will amount to about 4% next year,” PRIME cited him as saying.
A scientist of the Center for Post-Soviet Studies of the RAS Institute of Economics, Artem Pylin, told Vestnik Kavkaza that the GDP growth of 1% next year is the inevitable consequence of economic recovery after reaching the bottom. "The moderate growth of the Russian economy can be linked to the fact that for two years it has experienced a downturn, so the first stirrings of positive growth, of course, should appear just on the basis of 'the low base effect'," he said.
The growth will be achieved in those economic sectors, which are oriented to the domestic market. "First of all, these are agriculture, the chemical industry and the food industry. On the one hand, the effect of import substitution is working, on the other hand, our own production of the relevant goods has been launched. Through these branches the economy growth is possible in 2017," Artem Pylin expects.
According to the expert, the activities of the state to ensure the growth of GDP will be linked with the stimulation of consumer demand. "It will be carried out due to a gradual increase of salaries in the public sector. At the same time, I think that the main thing is the growth of government investment in infrastructure. The private sector is not yet ready to invest in the economy. Amid lack of private investments the government could increase investments in infrastructure, as it will spur economic growth in the long term," the expert said.
Advisor on macroeconomics to the CEO of the 'Opening-Broker' brokerage house, economist Sergey Hestanov, also explained the high probability of the GDP growth next year with a strong recovery after the decline in 2015-2016.
"As for a long-term, I think it is too early to forecast the GDP dynamics for 2018-2019 - simply because there is still a budget deficit in Russia and reserve funds are being spent," the expert warned.
To stimulate the sustainable economic growth, the authorities should implement a set of measures called 'structural reforms'," the economist noted.
"In general, now the GDP growth is mostly influenced by oil prices. Unfortunately, the modern economic science cannot reliably and accurately predict an increase in oil prices," the advisor on macroeconomics to the CEO of the 'Opening-Broker' brokerage house pointed out.
Commenting on Ulyukayev's data on record low inflation this year, the expert said that the main reason for this was the drop in consumer demand.
