Analysts at the US private intelligence company Stratfor have expressed their opinion on the causes of the protests in the regions of Azerbaijan.
Being an oil-producing country, Azerbaijan is experiencing the serious consequences of the collapse in oil prices today. The country had to devalue the manat, the national currency, which significantly slowed down economic growth, Stratfor reports.
"During protests that took place in different regions, the protesters put forward economic demands, speaking against rising prices and unemployment. However, security forces took control of the situation by detaining some participants of the event. "A very small number of people attended the event," Haggin.az reports.
"Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has strong power. However, if oil prices continue to decline, economic difficulties will also worsen. Stability and new protests are not guaranteed in Azerbaijan," Stratfor reports.
"Protests were extremely weak in the country during the 12 years of Ilham Aliyev's presidency. The Azerbaijani opposition is very inefficient in comparison with Armenia or Georgia,'' analysts said.
At the same time, the decisive factor will be the authorities' reaction to the protests of in Azerbaijan, especially if they become widespread.
"The Baku authorities have until now used both negotiations and arrests to suppress the protests. What happens if the security forces choose more aggressive tactics, if clashes occur between the police and protesters? However, if the authorities are able to reduce prices, or to make any political concessions, they will be able reduce the protest activity and prevent large shocks," analysts report.
Stratfor also believes that the reaction of the international community will have some impact on the current situation in Azerbaijan. Certainly, it will happen as the West, and Russia, Turkey and Iran have strategic interests in Azerbaijan.
According to the analytical material, relations between Baku and Washington today leave much to be desired, as Azerbaijan accuses the US of interfering in its internal affairs. Stratfor analysts believe that in the coming weeks it will become clear how the current situation in Azerbaijan will be exploited by foreign players.
