Moscow hosted a meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Russia, Iran and Turkey on December 20. Following its results, Sergei Lavrov, Mohammad Javad Zarif and Mevlut Cavusoglu issued a joint statement on measures to revive the political process to settle the Syrian conflict.
According to the Russian minister, the negotiators agreed that there is no military solution to the crisis in Syria. "It is our common view that it is necessary to fully respect the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Syria. The general opinion is that there is no military solution to the Syrian crisis," Sergey Lavrov stressed.
He also noted that Moscow, Ankara and Tehran are willing to act as guarantors of the negotiations between the Syrian government and opposition. The sides expressed their determination to jointly fight the terrorist groups and the need to separate them from the armed opposition.
The President of the National Strategy Institute, Mikhail Remizov, commenting the intention of the three countries to act as guarantors in negotiations between Damascus and the official opposition to Vestnik Kavkaza, noted in the first place that Turkey can provide such a guarantee for the part of the opposition, while Russia and Iran - for Bashar al-Assad. "But whether it will be possible to effectively separate the opposition. Until now they have been able to do it only locally. By and large, it has not been possible to achieve any durable arrangements on settlement scenarios with any of the influential opposition forces," the analyst noted.
At the same time he pointed out that it is not clear how the three countries have been able to reconcile their political positions and plans of fighting in Syria. "The very fact of the meeting and the statements made at those meeting say that there is a dialogue.Yet it is difficult to judge whether they have been able to agree on some political or military scenarios," the expert stressed.
In addition, the President of the National Strategy Institute emphasized that concerted actions of Russia, Turkey and Iran will help to bring the end of the war and the transition to the talks in Syria. According to him, today, Iran and Turkey are the most powerful regional military powers, and in many respects the keys to the settlement are in their hands.
In addition, he noted that the military-political cooperation between Moscow, Ankara and Tehran can significantly change the balance of powers in the Middle East. "If we can create some kind of a new status quo, which can be maintained at least for some time, it can sufficiently enhance mutual trust of three sides, especially Turkey and Iran, to change certain geopolitical realities in the region," the analyst said.
He also expressed doubt about the joint actions of Russia, Turkey and Iran in Iraq. "Turkey has already acted there unilaterally, but if it wants to expand its actions, it would have to negotiate this with the Americans," Mikhail Remizov concluded.
A military observer of the TASS news agency, retired Colonel Viktor Litovkin, said that the agreement reached by Russia, Turkey and Iran suggests that these countries will not allow the outbreak of war, and the opposition will sign a peace agreement. "But these guarantees will not apply to terrorists. They will be destroyed, until they leave Syria," the expert noted.
At the same time, he stressed that fighting plans in Syria will be negotiated by the generals. "It will be possible to make any conclusions and assumptions only after the talks between the Syrian government and the opposition," the expert explained.
He also pointed out that the cooperation between Russia, Turkey and Iran still will not change the balance of powers in the Middle East. "It's just a letter of intent. When any concrete agreements will be agreed at a meeting between the opposition and the Syrian government, when ISIS terrorists will be expelled from the Syrian territory, then we can talk about some changes in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East," Victor Litovkin believes.
Speaking about the possibility of joint actions of the three countries in Iraq, the expert said that these talks are premature. "This is Iraq, not Syria. It is the territory of the US, and the US must make its own decision, together with the Iraqi government," the expert concluded.
