Over the next few years, the Russian national currency will demonstrate a high level of volatility. This statement was made by the head of Sberbank German Gref on the sidelines of the East Economic Forum.
"As for the ruble, as all the macroeconomic situation, will be very volatile all subsequent years. We should be ready for it," Interfax cites him as saying.
Gref stressed that changes in the exchange rate are largely determined by commodity prices, which is unlikely to be very high in this period. I will be very good if they stabilize.
The head of Sberbank isn’t so pessimistic and he doesn't consider a probable level of $ 20-30 a barrel. More realistically that the price will be $ 50-60 a barrel. ‘’It isn’t not pleasant, but not critical," he said.
Some time ago, Russian Deputy Finance Minister Alexey Moiseev said that it was possible a high probability of the ruble in the first half of next year, and possibly earlier as it always happens in the first six months during the past 20 years. ‘‘The best period for the ruble was the period from late February to the middle of May. And I think there is no reason to expect anything else next year,’’ he said.
Associate Professor of Stock markets and financial engineering RANHiGS Vasily Yakimkin in an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza noted German Gref’s pessimistic forecast, adding that the situation can change only at the beginning of 2017.
"High volatility will last during 1.5 years at least. Then, Russia's economy will start to recover and the recession will stop. The volatility will be reduced. There are uncertainties in the economy now: the recession, the decline in industrial production, the threat of inflation. Sanctions also affect the ruble. But the main thing is increased volatility of the oil market. Experts in the oil and gas sectors even stopped making medium-term forecasts. Therefore, as soon as the price of oil will be stable, the ruble also will be stronger. But not earlier than in 2017," he said.
"In fact we should give and expect 1.5 years of increased volatility and increased risks for traders in the oil and in the ruble markets. History shows that such things are smoothed only by the economic growth," said the expert.
