The value of the ruble continues to fall on the Moscow exchange. As of 14:56 pm, the dollar increased by 1.11 rubles and was worth 59.54 rubles, the euro rose 1.72 rubles and was worth 65.88 rubles.
A leading researcher at the Institute of Applied Economic Research of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economics and Public Administration, Alexander Abramov, told Vestnik Kavkaza that the current decline of the ruble is linked to several reasons. "The first is still the decline in oil prices which we have seen in recent years. And the second is the Chinese events. That is, today we see that the index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange fell by 8.5%. And the third thing, I think there is still some artificial factor. We saw that there were some reports of some investment banks which, in general, gave a strong negative outlook on the ruble. Frankly, it seems to me that all these predictions were exaggerated, but since the very brand investment companies released it, the mass of the players on the market began to react to it. Of course, the Central Bank will try to return the course to a more reasonable level. But these three reasons are still important," the expert said.
As for predictions about what will happen to the ruble in the coming months, the economist suggested that the most significant event may be an increase in interest rates in September by the Federal Reserve, but very slowly, so it can weaken the ruble, "There are factors which are difficult to predict. For example, how far will the Central Bank go in its desire to fill its reserve. I think that in the region of 55-56 rubles would be quite a reasonable rate for the beginning of autumn, and at the end of it – close to 60 rubles," Alexander Abramov suggested.
"I think that the dollar will be in the region of 60 rubles even at the end of the year," the expert concluded .
According to the deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on Financial Markets, Anatoly Aksakov, the current decline of the ruble in the first place is due to the fall in oil prices. "This is the main reason. The second piece of news is related to Iran, because it is believed that the sanctions against Iran will be lifted, respectively, Iran will get access to the world oil markets. This will be an additional sentence, which reduces the price of oil. The second is that everyone expects that the Federal Reserve System will raise the refinancing rate, which should lead to the strengthening of the dollar. And the dollar is strengthening itself with all the expectations of strengthening. And because there is an inverse relationship between the dollar and oil, the expected appreciation of the dollar means a decrease in oil prices," he said.
"The ruble will hang between 53-63 rubles per dollar intervals, or even maybe 50-65, and this is due to the instability of the oil market. In my opinion, the Federal Reserve System will not raise the refinancing rate since a strengthening of the dollar is not profitable for America. Because America's debt is very high, it even exceeds the GDP of the United States. Plus, the strengthening of the dollar means a decline in the competitiveness of the US economy. So I think that all of this is a game by speculators who deliberately formed an opinion that the refinancing rate will be lifted, and that Iranian oil will bring down prices," Anatoly Aksakov concluded.
