If the US eases the sanctions, the Russian currency would appreciate 5% to 10%, according to 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, with 41% of respondents predicting a gain of 1% to 5%.
However, the probability that the US president Donald Trump will significantly weaken the sanctions against Russia this year has declined to 35%, Gazeta.ru writes.
Russian economists, by contrast, do not consider the effect from the lifting of the US sanctions significant for the ruble. "I think the lifting of the US sanctions will not lead to significant changes of the ruble exchange rate, because the US economic sanctions have no special significance. First, the European sanctions are more significant for Russia in terms of financial restrictions, and second, there is a more serious factor, affecting the exchange rate - the price of oil, which can vary due to President Donald Trump's policy of rejection of oil imports and the growing output of US shale oil. Therefore, Bloomberg experts' forecasts are very doubtful," the director of the Institute of International Economics at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ruslan Greenberg, said.
Advisor on macroeconomics to the CEO of the 'Opening-Broker' brokerage house, economist Sergey Hestanov, agreed with Greenberg. "The role of sanctions is greatly exaggerated. The main reason for the decline of Russia's economy is drop in oil prices Therefore, even if the sanctions are lifted, we should not expect big changes. Most likely, there will be psychological movements after lifting of the sanctions. The forecast of 5-10% looks realistic for now, but eventually everything will return to normal, because the oil price dynamics is much more important," the economist stressed.
Professor of the RANEPA faculty of Finance, Money Circulation and Credit, Yuri Yudenkov, recalled that the Russian Central Bank and the Russian Finance Ministry are not interested in strengthening of the ruble. "The real exchange rate will not decline below 60 rubles. The policy of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance are aimed at increasing foreign exchange reserves and the rate, which will be officially announced, will be higher than 60 rubles per $1, and there will be fluctuations," he expects.
The expert also said about an impact of the lifting of sanctions on the ruble. "To date, our banking system is not receiving long-term loans from abroad, but we need them very much for the development of the industry. The lifting of financial sanctions will have a very positive impact on our economy and will help to strengthen the ruble. The lifting of sanctions, of course, will give us access to US financial markets - and then to European markets, because Europe repeats the actions of the US," Yuri Yudenkov concluded.
