A war in Karabakh can break out again at any moment and there is little hope that the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh can be resolved through negotiations, therefore Armenia will not resume the peace talks, the Armenian President, Serzh Sargsyan, said speaking to Western media.
"A Russian-brokered truce may not be enough to prevent fighting on an even larger scale after four days of war between the Azeris and the Armenians this month, which involved several hundred tanks and 30,000 artillery rounds. It’s unreasonable for Armenia to resume peace talks with Azerbaijan over the disputed territory without security guarantees because the situation is entirely different now: while we are talking somewhere else, the military officials he would be contemplating a new war to settle the conflict by," Bloomberg cited him as saying.
Sargsyan negatively assessed Russia's efforts to resolve the conflict. "Minister Sergey Lavrov did not bring any new proposals, because he realizes very well that it doesn’t make sense to talk about negotiations immediately after a four-day war. Even though the Russian Defense Minister mediated the ceasefire, Russian peacekeepers are no longer needed in the conflict zone. We were talking about the deployment of Russian peacekeepers during previous peace talks; but since there are no peace talks underway right now then how can Russian troops be deployed in Karabakh?" the President of Armenia asked, adding that Russia is pursuing a “balanced policy towards Armenia and Azerbaijan".
He also for the first time publicly acknowledged the liberation of the occupied Azerbaijani territories. "Azeri troops recaptured very small territory in the north and south of the contact line that had no strategic importance for the Armenian troops," he said.
Thus, Sargsyan rejected Russia's new diplomatic initiative. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said during his visit to Yerevan that there is no military solution to the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. The Minister called for the full and strict implementation of the 1994-1995 ceasefire agreements, "which are indefinite timewise and should be fully respected as such by all".
"Russia as a sovereign state and the OSCE Minsk Group’s co-chair will be doing its utmost to provide assistance to the sides at this stage [of the conflict resolution]. We believe it is important to pay attention to the practical implementation of the confidence-building measures, security measures and measures to investigate incidents along the contact line. These measures were negotiated by the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan with Russia’s mediation in 2011; and that OSCE has been trying to put into effect," the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry said, adding that "any further delay in implementing these decisions would be wrong".
Earlier, the director of the Institute of Political Studies Sergey Markov, speaking with a correspondent of Vestnik Kavkaza, noted that Yerevan’s reluctance to give up the status quo remains the main obstacle to a political settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
"The 'Kazan' formula did not work, not only because of different visions of peace processes, but also due to the fact that Armenia didn't want to compromise – it just wanted to leave everything as it is now. The outbreak of hostilities had an impact on the Armenian leadership, the Russian leadership, the leadership of France and the United States, as well as representatives of other international organizations, showed that this issue cannot be put on hold indefinitely. If the current negotiations fail once again, the next outbreak of hostilities will be inevitable, and then, probably, Azerbaijan will return a certain part of the occupied territories," Sergey Markov warned.
A political analyst at the EurAsEC Institute, Nada Fridrihson, in turn, drew attention that the situation in the conflict zone in Nagorno-Karabakh has changed. "As a result of the hostilities Azerbaijan has captured new positions and found itself in a more advantageous position in the negotiation process. Unfortunately, the sides of the conflict are not ready to talk peace, because each of them will be unhappy in the end. I do not think we should wait for a breakthrough in the near future," she concluded.
Abandoning the peace talks under the pretext of unstable situation on the contact line, Yerevan jeopardizes all previous diplomatic efforts of the mediators, including Russia – a high degree of tension in the conflict zone is giving Armenia an excuse to delay the peace process indefinitely, neutralizing the winning position of Azerbaijan and trying to preserve the status quo.
