Fitch Ratings has increased the long-term rating of Kazakhstan default emitent from BBB- to BBB in foreign currency and from BBB to BBB+ in national currency, Trend reports.
Fitch says that real foreign assets will reach 49% of the GDP by late 2013, compared with 37% in 2010. Kazakhstan is expected to be at 6-7% of the GDP in 2011-2013. Budget will have a proficit in 2012, even if oil prices will drop to $80 per barrel.
The GDP is expected to have a growth rate of 6% in 2011-2013. The main risk comes from reduction of prices for raw materials and foreign demand.
Kazakhstan has one of the lowest levels of problemic credits - 37%. Although income in this sphere is scarce.
Bank assets dropped to 43% of the GDP in 2011, compared with 56% in 2008. But dependence on foreign capital reduced sufficiently, compared with 2008.
Further improvement of the rating may be a result of further improvement of the sovereign and foreign balances. More sovereign assets could reduce dependence from oil income and protect from trade leaps, such as the ones in 2009. The ratio of the gross foreign debt is 70% of the GDP. Existing tendencies may allow the state to start issuing foreign loans by late 2013.
According to CAGR of oil extraction of 9% in the last decade and price rises, Kazakhstan has good chances to cope with reduction of income.
