Yesterday world oil prices continued to rise, as evidenced by data from stock exchanges. In particular, Brent crude oil rose by 5.3% to $57.03 a barrel. The head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Alexei Ulyukayev, said that the peak of inflation will be in March this year.
"Inflation in Russia will reach its peak level in March," he said. According to the minister, currently the annual inflation rate is 13.7%, not 15%.
The associate professor of stock markets and financial engineering of RANEPA, Vasiliy Yakimkin, told Vestnik Kavkaza that the current rise in oil prices takes place within the framework of its correction.
"Firstly, the price of oil continues to fall. Secondly, inflation in this case is connected with the devaluation of the ruble, with cheaper oil prices. On the one hand, these two processes are independent, but on the other, between them there is a certain time lag," he said. "The previous fall of the Brent crude oil price below $50 per barrel has actually devalued the ruble. And now we are reaping the fruits of it - a jump in inflation. The key interest rate in the country, as well as current inflation, is 15%, and food inflation is 20%. At the beginning of spring the indicator of inflation may be one and a half times higher. Of course, both will decline gradually, but only if there isn't a sharp reduction in oil prices, which we can't exclude," the expert said.
"If the price of oil reaches $40 per barrel or decline even further, there will be another spike in inflation. Then its current level will seem to us only as the beginning of our troubles in comparison with that, we can see further. That is all determined by oil," Yakimkin summed up.The chairman of the National Foreign Exchange organization, Dmitry Piskulov, expressed the view that if there is a connection between these two events, it is very small."Inflation depends on inflationary expectations and on changes in the ruble exchange rate, on its fall, on the devaluation which took place last year and at the beginning of this year. It has led to an increase in import prices, which has led to a rise in inflation over the past year to 11.4%," the expert said."It is expected that the devaluation effect, the effect of inflationary expectations will work, leading to acceleration of inflation to the level of 15-17% by the second quarter of this year. The costs of producers play an important role too. In particular, interest rates have risen after the base rate was raised by the Bank of Russia, which also leads to the acceleration of inflation caused by increased costs of producers who lend," he explained."We have a serious inflationary monetary factor, but it does not depend on the oil price. It should be the reverse influence - with the strengthening of oil prices, with its increasing, the stabilization of the ruble should happen, which will help to reduce inflation and devaluation expectations. But this happens with a delay of several months. So, it is an event that doesn't have a strong influence on inflation," Piskulov concluded.
"If the price of oil reaches $40 per barrel or decline even further, there will be another spike in inflation. Then its current level will seem to us only as the beginning of our troubles in comparison with that, we can see further. That is all determined by oil," Yakimkin summed up.
The chairman of the National Foreign Exchange organization, Dmitry Piskulov, expressed the view that if there is a connection between these two events, it is very small.
"Inflation depends on inflationary expectations and on changes in the ruble exchange rate, on its fall, on the devaluation which took place last year and at the beginning of this year. It has led to an increase in import prices, which has led to a rise in inflation over the past year to 11.4%," the expert said.
"It is expected that the devaluation effect, the effect of inflationary expectations will work, leading to acceleration of inflation to the level of 15-17% by the second quarter of this year. The costs of producers play an important role too. In particular, interest rates have risen after the base rate was raised by the Bank of Russia, which also leads to the acceleration of inflation caused by increased costs of producers who lend," he explained.
"We have a serious inflationary monetary factor, but it does not depend on the oil price. It should be the reverse influence - with the strengthening of oil prices, with its increasing, the stabilization of the ruble should happen, which will help to reduce inflation and devaluation expectations. But this happens with a delay of several months. So, it is an event that doesn't have a strong influence on inflation," Piskulov concluded.
![November 2025 in photos: New Year at GUM, the "City of Living Stories," and autumn scenes](https://en.vestikavkaza.ru/upload2/s400xfull/2025-12-02/1764706769692f49d1538777.83780174.webp "November 2025 in photos: New Year at GUM, the "City of Living Stories," and autumn scenes")
