Mubariz Ahmedoglu, Director of the Baku Center for Political Innovations and Technologies, said that the main political event of Azerbaijan in 2011 was obtaining membership in the UN Security Council. Another achievement is winning the Eurovision Song Contest 2011 in Germany. It all makes a positive image of Azerbaijan in Europe.
Ahmedoglu noted economic development of Azerbaijan. The budget exceeded $20 billion, gold and currency reserves – by $40 billion. Azerbaijan has a share of 83% in South Caucasus, he underlined.
The expert predicts that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would not be resolved in 2012, the peacekeeping experiment of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was fruitless. Ahmedoglu believes that Armenia is to blame for its lack of interest in settling the conflict and refusal to make compromise.
Ahmedoglu stressed on military preparations. Peaceful talks and military preparations had 50/50% of priority. But Azerbaijan increased military expenses in 2011 and purchased Russian weapons.
The political analyst noted that Azerbaijan held numerous cultural and religious events. He reminded that Azerbaijan plans to form own satellite network. The Azerbaijani Ministry for Communication and Information Technology announced plans to launch two satellites, rather than one.
Concerning global events, Ahmedoglu emphasized on the Arab world. The second priority belongs to coping with the economic and financial recession in Europe and the US. The third position belongs to Russia’s overcoming the crisis. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia was dependent on loans from the IMF. Now it is capable of carrying out reforms and investing, beneficial for the US and EU.
The expert noted the situation in Kazakhstan and Russia. He believes that certain foreign forces are interest in revolutions in the CIS, such as the ones in the Arab world.
Ahmedoglu predicts that Russia would be able to realize economic reforms for its population, small and medium business. The majority of the population would not be protesting, he says.
Russia will doubtlessly protect its interests in the US and NATO missile shield formation in Europe. The political analyst is confident that Russia and the US would improve ties. Islamic threats would rise, he believes. Tehran may be a closer partner for Russia, Ahmedoglu believes.
Southern neighbors would try to destabilize Azerbaijan in 2012, he says. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict may have progress because it may become a major problem for Iran and Russia.
Regarding Russian-Turkish relations, Mubariz Ahmedoglu says that they will continue improving. The two states signed a deal on construction of the South Stream in late 2011, running through the Black Sea. Their relations may be similar to the ties of the US and EU.
