“Vestnik Kavkaza” experts present the results of the past year and make prognoses for 2012
According to the head of the Modern Iranian Studies Center, Rajhab Safarov, 2011 was all in all successful as far as the geopolitical developments in the Greater Caucasus are concerned. Post-Soviet states were not subjected to harsh changes. There were some interesting developments in relations between Iran and Turkey: firstly, the two countries became unusually close, but later drifted apart. As for Armenian-Azerbaijani dialogue, the expert said that it was not a fully-functional diplomatic process, but it certainly indicates that the two sides are at least trying to keep the conflict from erupting.
As for the expectations for 2012, Mr Safarov suggested that the worst-case scenario is if the West and Israel force a direct confrontation with Iran. It would affect the whole region of the Caucasus and influence all other conflicts already existing there.
The year 2012 will become a turning point in Iran’s foreign policy: either the international community will acknowledge Teheran’s right to develop its peaceful nuclear program (which it will pursue anyway), or it will have to unleash a war against Iran.
Another significant event for Iran will happen in March: the parliamentary elections are scheduled for March. According to the expert, it is possible that reform-oriented politicians will get more seats this time.
