Russia continues mediation in settling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, together with France and the US, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told a press conference today. The Russian, Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents will have a trilateral meeting in Sochi on January 23.
The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group will attend the meeting. They will be able to talk with the presidents if necessary. Lavrov did not make forecasts on the outcome of the new round of talks.
Sergey Mikheyev, Director General of the Center for Political Environment, told Vestnik Kavkaza that he has confidence that the meeting in Sochi would yield no results. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is concluding his term of office. Besides, there was no progress at the trilateral meeting in Kazan. The meeting in Kazan worsened the situation, the expert believes, because it was followed by negative comments.
Regarding Azerbaijani and Armenian confrontation, which may turn into an active phase, Mikheyev believes that such a scenario is unlikely. It would not benefit any side. Azerbaijan will hold presidential polls in 2013. A military conflict would weaken Aliyev's position as a leader, as well as weaken the ruling elite. This could cause destabilization in the state. Azerbaijan would not attack without full confidence of success, Sergey Mikheyev says.
Ismail Agakishiyev, head of the Center for Caucasus Studies of the Russian State University for the Humanities, believes that the meeting was initiated by Russia, confirming its interest in settling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. President Dmitry Medvedev said in a recent interview with Azerbaijani media that there is still chance for a peaceful resolution of the conflict, the expert notes. No one has more information about the problem than the three presidents. If the Russian president makes such statements, he understands that the conflict may be resolved some way, Ismail Agakishiyev believes.
According to the expert, the upcoming meeting demonstrates Medvedev’s attempt to settle the conflict before the next presidential polls begin. But no solution has been found for a long time and the reasons for such an outcome are understandable. A solution to the problem would be a big surprise for everyone, Agakishiyev says.
The head of the Center for Caucasus Studies noted that if the trilateral meeting of Medvedev with Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan were a way of saying goodbye to them, the Russian president could have chosen different ways to do so. The three presidents realize their responsibility for the problem and do not avoid it. They make steps towards each other, despite their contrary positions. Russia wants a solution via compromise, without using force. But mutual compromises are a complicated issue. They should allow the presidents to sign a document. It takes great will from all sides of the conflict to reach such an agreement, Ismail Agakishiyev concludes.
Leonid Gusev, a scientist of the Institute for International Studies of the MGIMO, said that Medvedev had organized the new trilateral meeting to demonstrate his actual desire to resolve complicated problems, conflicts that are currently frozen. On the other hand, it is a good sign that the presidents decided to meet together under Russian mediation and discuss a range of issues they have, It is a much better choice than mutual threats and accusations, the expert believes. The conflicting sides should discuss pressing issues and reach a solution. Whether they succeed or fail is a hard question to answer. But their initiative to meet again is a positive sign, Gusev concludes.
