The upcoming Russian presidential elections on March 4 significantly increased the gathering activity. A many-thousand-strong rally in support of Vladimir Putin as a presidential candidate, which took place on February 23 rally on the Luzhniki Stadium, repeated the achievement of the Poklonnaya Hill rally in its mass character and in its essence.
Commenting for VK on the Luzhniki rally in support of the presidency of Vladimir Putin and on its influence on the growth of Putin’s rating as a presidential candidate, the director of the International Institute of Political Studies, Yevgeny Minchenko, noted that the impact of such rallies is "not very big, but still nonetheless it exists."
The expert identified several factors of the psychological impact on the electorate in the run-up to the March 4 elections: "The first factor is a picture for the voter. That is, people see and feel how many people had gathered to support Putin. Second, people came to this event from all over the country. They return home emotionally charged. They have a positive attitude: they have been to Moscow and participated in the rally, they have seen Putin who spoke at Luzhniki Stadium." The very appearance of Putin in public is important, "the people, obviously, left with a positive attitude and energetically charged," the analyst notes.
In addition, mass rallies in support of the current regime in Russia are important in terms of foreign policy. Yevgeny Minchenko stresses that "this picture is also for the West. In order to discard the issue of the illegitimacy of the elections, of Putin's ratings and of the lack of popular support, please take a look: 150,000 people from across the country came out to support the regime."
In these circumstances, the Director of the International Institute of Political Studies sees the probability of a second round in the upcoming presidential election as low, supporting his hypothesis with the opinion polls of opposition analytical centres. "For example, Levada-Center gives Putin a rating of about 60%. If we count the insincere voters, it will still be no more than 5-7%. Anyway, it turns out, roughly speaking, more than 50% will vote for Putin, and the administrative resources will add a few more percentage points, so I think that is realistic for Putin to get 53-55% of the vote right in the first round of the elections," Yevgeny Minchenko says.
This is a "convincing result," the expert says, adding that, most likely, Putin's result at the election will be about 60%.
Earlier, the director of "Levada-Center", sociologist Lev Gudkov, in an exclusive interview for VK, noted that the Prime Minister Putin is leading among the presidential candidates. According to the research of the sociological center, 63-66% of those who choose to participate in the elections on March 4 are ready to vote for Putin. He also noted that fluctuations in the rating of the favorite of the pre-election race in recent months are minimal and are close to the threshold of statistical error.
On March 4, about 15% of those determined in their choice will vote for the candidate of the Communist Party, Gennady Zyuganov, 8% - for the Liberal-Democratic Party leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky, 6% - for the self-promoted Mikhail Prokhorov, and 5% of the electorate will vote for the leader of "A Just Russia" Sergei Mironov.
In addition, Lev Gudkov expressed confidence that "the system of propaganda has reached its ceiling, and even the serious work on attracting and mobilizing voters deployed in recent years by the head of government does not yield any significant results, but can only bolster the falling popularity of the leader of the "United Russia ." If the headquarters of Putin's pre-election campaign did not make such efforts, the rating of the prime minister would inevitably go down, the sociologist sums up.
However, the director of Levada Center predicts a fluctuating protest mood and increasing social tension in the autumn, but only 3% of the population will really be able to take to the streets. 10% of the population is “quite ready" to go to a rally against the violations of elections, 30% is "quite unready", and almost every second Russian is "definitely not ready" to rally against election fraud.
