Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has won the recent presidential polls, inspiring new discussions of Russian foreign policy of the upcoming six years. Putin called the CIS the absolute priority. Political analysts believe that the policy will include realization of the Eurasian project, development of South Caucasus, efficient relations with Baku and Ankara. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is one of the issues.
Sergey Mikheyev, Director General of the Center for Political Conjuncture, believes that Putin’s presidency would not give a boost to the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. The situation is at a stalemate, because Baku and Yerevan do not want to make concessions. Putin’s international mediation would not make much difference, because Europeans, Americans and Russia have reached no major progress so far. But certain changes may occur. President Dmitry Medvedev paid special attention to the problem.
Yevgeny Minchenko, Director of the International Institute for Political Expertise, expects a military resolution of the conflict. Elites of both Azerbaijan and Armenia are likely to provoke a military conflict for domestic mobilization. Azerbaijan has spent a lot of finances on military modernization, purchases of weapons. Armenia has very serious domestic problems and needs a foreign enemy to consolidate voters. This is why there is a risk of war and a military operation against Iran could become an additional factor of destabilization. Chances of war are 10-15%, the political analyst says.
