Aza Migranyan, the head of the laboratory of Inter-regional Development Problems under the Institute of Market Problems of the RAS, discussed with VK the current economic situation in Armenia and the country's possible integration in the Eurasian Union.
"Speaking about the perception of the statement on joining the CU and the attitude of 5% of the Armenian population to it, from the economic point of view, when we talk about interests of Armenia in development of its own economy and promotion of its growth, our institute has held surveys on the benefits and disadvantages that cooperation with the EU and the Eurasian community can bring," she said.
"There are the following positions: First of all, when we speak about Armenia, we can see a paradoxical situation, in which Armenia is interested not in the classic form of a Customs Union, but an economic union," she added. Armenia is interested not in freedom of promotion of its products, because it is isolated, I mean the short-term period, but it is interested in common markets of industrial production, as we need modernization and economic development. You know that nothing will happen without modernization. We are very interested in the common labor market of the Eurasian community. In the context of these two interests of Armenia we have held studies on the GDP structure of Armenia. According to statistics, more than 50% of the GDP structure of Armenia is in the sphere of trade and services. In this context, the growth of GDP and a growth tendency depend on the internal purchasing ability of the population. And here we have a causative-consecutive chain of economic factors of cooperation. On the one hand, Armenia is interested in liberalization and improvement of accessibility of the Russian, Kazakh and Belarusian labor markets. Possible joining the CU and cooperation within the Union will enable Armenia to gain wider access to the labor markets of its partners, and this is an obvious advantage."
"The calculations which would be made, considering the purchasing ability of the population by means of transfers, are rather complicated - we have them, but I don’t want to make you feel bored; and it will bring serious growth as well. But the Armenian problem is that short-term growth will be provided at the expense of an increase in the population's income, while the problem is modernizing the economy and keeping professionals in the country. The problem of simplification of emigration leads to the problem of the depopulation of Armenia. From this point of view, preservation of the human resources potential is very important for Armenia. When we conducted surveys for the presidential administration, we developed strategic factors of possible cooperation. And here we have a unique situation. If Armenia really becomes a member of the CU, it should, first of all, strive for development and settlement, i.e. signing various contracts and unification of laws in the sphere of labor resources management, in the sphere of management of investments in industry and modernization. And there is a combination which is desirable both for Eurasia and Europe – uniting the territory from Dublin to Vladivostok. A combination of the investment capacities of the CU, the common economic area and the future Eurasian Economic Union, the technological capacities of European developed industrial infrastructure and the professionalism of population can lead to a serious positive shift," she said.
