The Ukrainian law about the amnesty for the participants of the Euromaidan entered into force - so the power after certain concessions agreed not to punish those who called to remove the current leadership. Does it mean peace or calm before the storm? Russian and Ukrainian experts are trying to provide answers to this question.
Professor Alexander Gusev, Head of the Center for strategic development of the CIS, is convinced that the amnesty will help to stabilize situation in Ukraine. In his opinion, the main political task for now will be the creation of the workable form of government. "But here the problem is that the opposition cannot create an attractive government without involving people who have already worked in the Cabinet of Ministers. Therefore the negotiations will be long, although it is clear that the government will be temporary and change after the presidential elections of 2015".
Ukrainian political scientist Anton Finko said that Ukraine is now in the critical phase of the political conflict. "Ukrainian ruling elites wrongly estimated the balance of power within the four Russia-Ukraine-EU-US, and this where most of the problems come from. Many things depend today on the agreements between Kiev, Moscow and Brussels".
General Director of the Institute for the Caspian Cooperation Sergey Mikheyev says that Ukrainian statehood is still under threat of destruction. "Any new power will encounter the same challenges. In addition, to legitimize the authority, the opposition will also need to conduct elections, and this will again provoke resistance". He stressed that conflicts like this do not end easily and provoke chain reaction: "If it worked now then Maidan can be gathered for any reason".
Senior research fellow of the Russian Institute for Strategic Research Oleg Nemensky thinks that amnesty is a successful political act, but does not expect any soon end of the conflict: "We see only some calming down, but not the end of the crisis". However, he believes that the worst scenarios of civil war in Ukraine are unlikely.
