Rejection of the non-aligned status of Ukraine started to be established yesterday, when the Verkhovna Rada voted in favor of the corresponding bill of President Poroshenko. This rejection was caused by the desire of the new Kiev authorities to join NATO, but these plans are not destined to come true, in the opinion of political scientists Sergey Mikheev, Vladimir Zharihin, Sergei Slobodchuk and Sergei Kizima.
According to the deputy chairman of the Editorial Board of Vestnik Kavkaza, the general director of the Caspian Cooperation Institute Sergey Mikheyev, this bill was passed as a threat to Russia. "I am sure that, if developed and approved, this law is aimed at feedin the American curators of the current Kiev authorities. On the one hand, formally it opens the way for Ukraine to NATO, but it is also an instrument of pressure on Russia. In fact, America haso embarked on the transformation of Ukraine into a military threat to Russia, and they carry out this course through the current Kiev authorities," Mikheev noted.
"America does not want to fight, knowing that it may result in a third world war, which would be nuclear. But it is a perfect option for America to get us to fight with someone else, let someone else's hands do it. They are ready to create a military problem at the border, so we could not conduct any active independent foreign policy in other parts of the world. That is, they are engaged in an attempt to link our efforts, to limit our room for maneuver, creating a military threat from Ukraine. Another thing is that Kiev joining NATO in the near future is simply impossible - Ukraine is not ready for this yet. But it is possible to obtain a status which will allow Ukraine to supply weapons and military equipment, to train professionals and to create an infrastructure. It is not necessary to accept Ukraine into NATO if you want to turn Ukraine into a military threat to Russia," Sergey Mikheev said.
From the point of view of the deputy director of the Institute of the CIS, Vladimir Zharikhin, there is still only a potential threat to Russia. "It would certainly be premature to say that there is now a real threat. Another thing is that Kiev is well aware that in the coming years Ukraine will not be accepted into NATO, but will achieve the status of a military ally of the US. This is what just might happen, given that in two years it is likely that a new, more radical president of the United States will be elected," Zharihin said, adding that if in the next few years Ukraine has no hope of joining NATO, in the long term the very existence of the alliance is beyond doubt.
Political consultant, director of "Slobodchuk and partners: politics, PR, elections," Sergey Slobodchuk said that there is still a long way to go to a full-out of the non-aligned status of Ukraine. "Non-aligned status is governed by principles of foreign policy and military doctrine. Despite the vote of the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine will remain a non-aligned state, even if the president signs the bill. But you've got to remind yourself that Poroshenko promised that before joining NATO, Ukraine will have a referendum which will fix the opinion of the majority of citizens on participation in military-political blocs. We'll see what steps the Ukrainian authorities would take in the future and whether they will be listening to the citizens," the expert said.
Slobodchuk also noted that today there is no system of relations between Ukraine and NATO. "There was such a format as an individual plan of relations between Ukraine and NATO that was in operation from 2002 to 2010, and now even this minimum does not exist. Today Ukraine's relations with NATO are at a lower level than they were during the time when Kuchma was president. Now it is turning into a situation where, on the one hand, Ukraine rejects non-aligned status, and on the other hand, it does not enter into any military-political bloc," Slobodchuk described the status.
According to him, the creation of a new "mini-military-political alliance" of Ukraine with its immediate neighbors seems much more real. "Just two or three weeks earlier it was an important event when Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite flew to Ukraine – there have been movements to create an alliance composed of Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine. Several documents were signed, including military-political and defense-oriented documents. It is clear that participation in NATO and any agreement with Lithuania are two different things, but we must understand that the West-Russia conflict situation is escalating. Ukraine, abandoning non-alignment and not joining any block, risks ending up in a very difficult situation. The closest analogy is Georgia in 2008," Sergei Slobodchuk expressed his opinion.
A Doctor of Political Sciences, Sergei Kizima, recalled that the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko has repeatedly talked about the dislike of the Belarusian state in the appearance of Kiev in NATO at the start of growth of tension around Ukraine. "At the moment the Republic of Belarus has borders with three members of the Alliance - Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. Since the US and the EU have problems with Belarus, we cannot consider NATO to be a military alliance that does not pose a threat to our national security. Therefore, it is not beneficial for the three NATO neighbors of Belarus to become four. In this case, there would be only one non-NATO neighbor remaining – Russia," Kizima pointed out.
For this reason, Belarus cannot calmly accept this legislative initiative of Ukraine, though Minsk realizes that it is a sovereign right of Ukraine. "We do understand that Ukraine rejected non-aligned status, so as to subsequently try to join NATO. Kiev, of course, has not considered any other military organizations for Ukraine to join. So this rejection of non-aligned status is done with a single purpose – to qualify in the future for membership of the Alliance. As I said, for Belarus it is better to have three NATO countries as neighbors than four. Although we have improved our relations with the West, we have no right to relax," Kizima said.
