Today representatives of the party United National Movement (UNM), after the planned protest in Tbilisi, are planning to arrange another 'Rose Revolution'. In particular, the protesters intend to surround the building of the State Chancellery, the Parliament and Tbilisi City Hall, and then seize other government structures.
Moreover, the "National Movement" has organized "squads", whose task is to conduct a series of provocations. In the case of the violent dispersal of the demonstration, squad members, posing as pro-government activists, will provoke a fight for which police will later be blamed, Interfax writes.
Georgia's state minister for reconciliation issues and civil equality, Paata Zakareishvili, suggested that the scenario conceived by the UNM is hardly feasible, because the party does not have the necessary public support.
"The former ruling party, headed by its leader, are known provocateurs and can do anything, but the most important thing is for the authorities to remain calm and not yield to the provocations," he noted.
As stated in an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza by the head of the Institute for Strategy Management, Georgian political scientist Petre Mamradze, the 'Rose Revolution' planned by the UNM is doomed to failure. "I think that they will get nothing: most of them, those who are in Georgia, understand this well. According to my information, it all comes from Saakashvili personally. He assesses the situation in Georgia as already ripe to conduct a Maidan, move the Kiev Maidan to Tbilisi, as some Georgian media write. But there is no such situation," the analyst said.
"Indeed, many people here in Georgia are disappointed by the actions of the new government. This government has been here for more than two years, the dream coalition and the dream government, but the people are disappointed in it, there is no trust in it, and there is no longer support. But there is no impetus in order to come out and overthrow, in the first place. And secondly, no less important - when Nazis organize such events, they are called Nazis here in Georgia. People won’t join them. They are hated by the vast majority. And they cannot raise anyone except for a hard core. The support they have across the country is no more than 10%," Petre Mamradze said.
"I’m saying with all responsibility: this team, the team of criminal accomplices of Saakashvili, do not have the mood, enthusiasm or faith that now they can arrange something and it’s going to happen. No, Saakashvili dictates it from Kiev and demands it of them, and since he has all the money, huge money, they submit," the analyst says.
As to the question of who is propping up the formed squads of the UNM and what they envision, the head of the Institute for Strategy Management noted that even during the authoritarian mob rule which Saakashvili began, the sadistic system was adjusted - informal squads were formed, organized by the government, they were paid money, they had their own uniform without any insignia. And everyone knew about it. And it was this very squad that smashed up the TV company 'Imedi' in November 2007.
"And now, bonded by common actions, they are still here, but there is no such mood, it's all very clearly traced as far back as 2012, at the elections, when these people did not dare to poke their noses, and except for two or three places they failed to arrange anything on the night of the elections. Now this plan of the former Georgian president is not supported by them, even those who were paid large sums. However, I emphasize, in order to gather together about ten thousand, there are such funds. It would cost somewhere around a million GEL," the expert estimated.
"And even then there is a problem, because it is difficult to bring dollars from abroad, and the former businessmen do not want to spend money from their own pockets. So now there is a big problem for the UNM, the main one among them being that the support, trust and positive attitude towards them of the population has decreased dramatically," the analyst concluded.
As noted in an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza by the head of the Center for European Studies, Kakha Gogolashvili, information about the UNM trying to arrange another 'Rose Revolution' is absolutely not true, because there are no prerequisites for that.
"The National Movement announced that it is going to hold a very peaceful rally, but the demands are radical - the resignation of the government, no new elections, or anything else, but only the resignation of the government. And they are not going to surround the buildings and so on. They held negotiations on this matter with the authorities, the plan of the demonstration has been completely conveyed, that is, where they will gather, how long they will hold the meeting, and so on. And the government promised to ensure the safety of the demonstration, so that it looks much less dramatic than some information sources describe it," the analyst said.
As for the question of today's attitudes toward the UNM in society, Gogolashvili noted that it is certainly ambiguous – around 20-25% of the population support this political force, it is a real political force. "Of course, there are quite a lot of people who radically oppose them, that is, they are just considering the National Movement as some force which should be forbidden, an illegal force and so on. And they even resort to violence at their rallies. There were even cases of attacks on activists of the National Movement recently by such extreme-minded, I'd say, groups. Of course, in society there is a certain radicalization of opinions and a certain opposition, but this opposition, in principle, is in dialogue. Still, there is a dialogue, there is a debate, televised debates, sometimes very sharp," the expert noted.
"Ultimately, we can say that the National Movement is a party that has a fairly large electorate for the opposition forces. Of course, it will not have enough of an electorate, in the near or medium-term future, to win an election. It will take a very long time, I think, waiting for the moment when again it will be able to gain a majority. But this political force will be a fairly strong opposition in the future," Kakha Gogolashvili assured.
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