The recent attack on the Azerbaijani village of Borsunlu from an
Armenian 'Grad' artillery unit has drawn more attention to
Nagorno-Karabakh. The declarations made by heads of states in Astana
were not followed by efficient actions.
Vestnik Kavkaza asked experts whether the negotiating process will
switch to a hot phase.
The deputy head of the CIS Institute, Vladimir Zharikhin, said that
both sides have hotheads, but the main influence comes from world
powers that are not interested in the complication of the conflict.
They affect the situation using Azerbaijani and Armenian communities
living in Russia and the USA.
Fikret Sadykhov, Azerbaijani politologist, professor of the Western
University of Baku, said that the war issue has never been put aside.
The negotiations have been being held for almost 20 years, yielding no
results. This forces those whose territory is occupied to start
planning actions. The expert believes that both the negotiating
process and dialogue have their limits. But this does not mean that
there will be a war in the near future.
He said that Azerbaijan is not planning a war. It is planning actions
to free its territories. It is hard to tell whether there will be a
war or not. Sadykhov emphasized that Russia and other countries have
activated their efforts. This gives a chance to avoid the use of
force.
Vladimir Zharikhin said that the dead-end in the negotiations on
Nagorno-Karabakh was reached 15 years ago. The USA, Russia and the EU
have a consensus on the mechanism of coping with the problem,
reflected in their declarations. Both sides welcome mediators. The
problem is that both sides will need to make concessions. The
societies of neither country are ready for them, the expert concluded.
