The recent events in Armenia have exposed the tensions between Russia and Armenia, in spite of officially proclaimed strategic level of partnership between two countries and Erevan's joining of the Eurasian Union. Demonstrations with requirement for fair treatment of the killing in Gyumri grew into the protests against Russian military presence on the territory of Armenia. Armenian leadership does participate in number of Russian projects, but the population of the country, being dissatisfied with the authorities, transfers the anger to Russia.
Securing of Russian foreign policy interests requires shifting of attention to the cooperation with the civil society, and not only with the leadership. Deep and real reasons of the unrest in Armenia is an economic and a political crisis in the republic. This crisis, generated by an unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the economic blockade of Armenia, will continue to provoke discontent among the citizens of the republic.
Similar opinion has been expressed in an interview to "Vestnik Kavkaza" by political analysts Mikhail Remizov and Alexander Karavaev.
“Kremlin is speaking and taking into account only those, who are currently at the power”, as it has doubts that working with opposition will bring the same influence as working with the authorities in power. Till today the politics of Russia towards Armenia has been based on the expectation of guaranteed information on further changes in the ruling elite. This information is gathered as the result of working with the current authorities – said Alexander Karavaev.
Mikhail Remizov emphasized the necessity to change the paradigm of Russian foreign policy – it is obvious that Russia needs to diversify its political contacts and build wide spectrum of relationships with different social and political forces. Strategic task is to to build relationships with the society.
The experts have expressed opinion that Russia's military withdrawal for Armenian territory is not likely to happen, since it is highly significant and needed for Armenia. It is worthy to remember here the example of American military presence in Japan after WWII, when in spite of number of crimes committed by American soldiers, the military presence are still there – noticed Remizov.
Karavaev expressed the opinion that it is hardly possible to avoid such incidents in the situation of military presence of one country at the territory of another. Also, according to the expert, Russian Ministry of Defense needs to transfer its foreign military bases to contractors entirely, but also work on the discipline in the army.
At the same time it is highly important to have just investigation of the committed crimes. "The reaction of the Armenian society to this murder is natural, since the society is very close, with a strong sense of ethnic solidarity, so in the case, when Armenians is being killed by a non-Armenian, is being perceived as ethnically tinged violence” - said Remizov.
The experts Remizov says there are several factors that that guarantee inter-allied relationship between Armenia and Russia, including economic, geo-strategic and military considerations, the presence of a considerable Armenian diaspora in Russia and Armenia's foreign environment.
At the same time Karavaev thinks Armania's rejection of union with Russia is still possible under the condition of open weakening of Russia's position in the South Caucasus and a very serious problems in Russia's economy. But as long as Russia's military presence on Armenian territory lasts for several decades by now, it is questionable if Russian influence on the bilateral relationship may vanish so easily.
