Hurriyet published an article by Soner Cağaptay headlined 'Is Turkey finally ready to make peace with the Kurds?' "Last week’s massive funeral in Turkey of three Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) activists killed in Paris speaks volumes about the PKK’s appeal among the Turkish Kurds in Turkey’s southeast," the article reads. "Turkey recently entered peace talks with the PKK, and if these talks succeed, they could bring an end to the bitterest aspects of the four-decade-old conflict between Ankara and the group. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan seems determined to achieve a settlement with the PKK, if for no other reason than that brokering a peace deal will effectively eliminate the last hurdle to achieve his goal of getting elected as the country’s next president in 2014."
"Turkey has engaged in talks with the PKK before, but they were always in secret. This time, however, Erdoğan is comfortable going public with the negotiations, suggesting that he is confident the talks will succeed. This optimism most probably stems from the predicament of his counterpart, the PKK’s jailed founder and leader Abdullah Öcalan, who was caught by Turkish security forces, with U.S. assistance, in 1999, and sent to solitary confinement after standing trial. Öcalan, who has spent over a decade by himself on the İmrali island jail in the middle of the Marmara Sea, is aching to go free, and hence wants to strike a deal with Erdoğan," the author writes.
"Such an agreement would involve a “ceasefire” between the Turkish government and the PKK, after which the PKK would pull its estimated 3,000 members out of Turkey. The PKK would then disarm. Next, Turkey would allow the PKK’s top leadership to find a home in Europe while the group’s rank and file would be allowed to return to Turkey and integrate into civilian life and politics," the article reads. "In return, Öcalan would get his freedom, most likely entering house arrest. Even if Erdoğan publically denies he will make this concession, the writing is on the wall."
"Even if Öcalan delivers large parts of the PKK under a peace deal, splinters from this group will likely remain committed to fighting Turkey, and they will enjoy support from Iran. Just as radicals broke away from the IRA after the peace deal in Northern Ireland, forming the “Real IRA” and continuing to fight the British government, a “Real PKK” could arise," the author writes.
"Unless Ankara’s deal with Öcalan includes substantial cultural and political rights for the country’s Kurds, such as Kurdish language education, a potential “Real PKK” would find some support among the Kurds in Turkey. In other words, Turkey’s terror problem would not disappear, although it would become a smaller threat. This is still better for Turkey than the alternative. Importantly, this might be all that Erdoğan needs to get elected as Turkey’s next president in 2014. But this will require outmaneuvering PKK splinters and their Iranian patrons," the author of the article concludes.
