Hürriyet Daily News published an article by Murat Yetkin headlined "2014: Turkey’s year of destiny."
"It is no secret that Turkey is entering a new year with heavy problems inherited from 2013. It is also no secret that there will be at least two, maybe three, elections in Turkey in 2014," the article reads.
"The first will be the local elections on March 30. This time, it’s about a bit more than just electing mayors. The overall performances of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Parti) and main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) will provide an important bellwether for the next two elections; the two-round presidential one in August of this year and the general elections, which are planned for June 2015 but might take place earlier, that is, in 2014, depending on the political and economic circumstances."
"The AK Parti and CHP will be in a competition for big cities like Istanbul and Ankara (held by the AK Parti) and İzmir (held by the CHP). The competition in the predominantly Kurdish southeast will be between the AK Parti and the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), which is focused on the Kurdish problem. The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) will try to take back its votes from the AK Parti in Central Anatolia, the inner Aegean and Black Sea regions. None of them are easy tasks," the author writes.
"This is because Turkey is passing through truly unusual political circumstances, even by Turkish standards," the article reads. "A corruption probe which started two weeks ago on Dec. 17 started a chain reaction of debates between the Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan government and the opposition; between the government and its closest erstwhile ally, Fethullah Gülen, a moderate Islamist scholar who resides in the United States, and his Hizmet (Service) Movement; between the judiciary and the police; and between different wings of the judiciary, which turned everything into a mess and brought the bureaucracy almost to a halt."
"If the AK Parti votes in the local elections drop from the 50 percent level (the 2011 general elections) even a few points, that could threaten Erdoğan’s chances of being elected as the next president of the country, replacing his long-time fellow Abdullah Gül. On the other hand, Gül has the constitutional right to be a candidate for a second term. If there is a drop in AK Parti votes by just a few percent, that could increase Gül’s chances of getting elected again, since Gül (because of his rather moderate stance) has the personal sympathy of people other than AK Parti supporters as well," Yetkin writes. "Could there be more surprises? Definitely. This is a year of destiny for Turkey, or rather, Erdoğan’s near future and everything is possible in this make-or-break game."
