On Wednesday Turkey's Hürriyet Daily News published an article by Serkan Demirtaş headlined "What next for Erdoğan?" devoted to recently-held Turkish municipal elections.
"Looking back on the election campaign and the topics that dominated the election period, it is hard to call the March 30 elections a local election. It was rather a general election or vote of confidence for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan who has had difficult times since December 17, 2013, the day when a massive corruption and graft operation was launched. Therefore, the analysis of the March 30 polls should be based on a comparison of previous parliamentary elections of 2011," the article begins.
"According to initial results, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) had 45 percent of votes, nearly five percent less than its 2011 performance. Bekir Ağırdır, a researcher for Konda, stressed the decrease in the AKP is around eight percent, given the fact that the public opinion polls conducted before December 17 showed the ruling party’s votes around 53 percent. Many suggest the decrease in votes for the AKP is primarily because of corruption claims and of Erdoğan’s fight against the Fethullah Gülen community," the author writes.
"However, although there is a slight decrease in its votes, the AKP should still be counted successful given the magnitude and seriousness of the corruption claims. A study carried out by Ipsos, a social research center, pointed out that only five percent of AKP voters were affected by corruption claims, while the rest had no change in their decisions. It is also interesting that some 70 percent of those who voted for the AKP have made their decisions to vote for the AKP before December 17. Bans on Twitter, YouTube or restrictions on the freedom of media were not in any way in the AKP voters’ consideration, either," the article reads.
"The party managed to keep Istanbul and Ankara, but it could do so thanks to a recent legal amendment that increased the area of greater municipalities, particularly for the capital city. Results show the AKP would have lost Ankara if the former law was applied," the author notes.
"The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) increased its votes from 2011’s 25.9 percent to 27.8 in a nearly two points rise. One of the most important reasons for the increase is the party’s decision to select the right candidates, especially for Istanbul and Ankara, which makes nearly 20 percent of all of the voters in Turkey. The CHP increased its votes in both towns and lost Ankara with only 15,000 votes," Demirtaş underlines.
"In general, the local polls have shown that the country’s political environment has not changed in a drastic way since the 2011 elections, despite last year’s massive Gezi protests and corruption claims," the author writes. "The AKP has seemingly secured its comfort above 45 percent vote margin, whereas the two opposition parties, the CHP and MHP, only had a small increase in their votes. The Kurds are walking on their own lines and strengthening their regional superiority."
"Under such political conditions, the number one issue of Turkey will be whether Erdoğan will decide to run for presidency or to remain prime minister for the fourth time. Talks for early elections would follow in the case Erdoğan makes a decision for his future political career," he concludes.
